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Are we sitting on a financial timebomb ?
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Post Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:06 pm 
 

OK, not to create panic selling here <GRIN> but the thought struck me the other day that perhaps the value of my 1st ed D&D collection will start to plummet in a few years ... as the players of 1E start to loose interest, grow old and die etc ...

I'm asking myself "who's gonna want to buy this stuff in 20yrs?".

Not too much of an issue as I'm not in it for the money but thought I'd throw this one out there (perhaps its already been discussed?)

  

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Post Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:11 pm 
 

it has been discussed before... ill see if I can find it

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Post Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:58 pm 
 

D&D has always been 'fringe' and collecting D&D is double Fringe.

If you're hoping to 'cash in' on D&D collecting, you're either someone who bought a whole bunch of Orange B3s and other modules in shrink for a quarter each back in the early 80s and have them stored in an airtight capsule waiting to sell, or, you've made a horrible mistake with your money. :)

However; where value will be preserved is in the VERY best quality 'Shrink' modules and rarities of the best quality.  Someone's always willing to pay for the rare/unique and superior quality.

That slightly used copy of X1 or B2?  not so much.  That being said, I haven't seen a big price drop recently, have you?

Frankly; not to rain on anyone's parade, I would LOVE to see the bottom drop out of the market.  Maybe then I could get the R's and some the Greyhawk stuff I'm missing.  Wouldn't mind a set of Planescape either.

Hmmm.. So.. YES! the market is DOOMED! SELL YOUR COLLECTIONS! HEAD FOR THE LIFEBOATS!  I hear woodgrains are only worth $100 now! AAAAH!  Sell me your collection for $10 before it's too late!

:twisted:


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:11 am 
 

GamesGuy wrote:D&D has always been 'fringe' and collecting D&D is double Fringe.

If you're hoping to 'cash in' on D&D collecting, you're either someone who bought a whole bunch of Orange B3s and other modules in shrink for a quarter each back in the early 80s and have them stored in an airtight capsule waiting to sell, or, you've made a horrible mistake with your money. :)

However; where value will be preserved is in the VERY best quality 'Shrink' modules and rarities of the best quality.  Someone's always willing to pay for the rare/unique and superior quality.

That slightly used copy of X1 or B2?  not so much.  That being said, I haven't seen a big price drop recently, have you?

Frankly; not to rain on anyone's parade, I would LOVE to see the bottom drop out of the market.  Maybe then I could get the R's and some the Greyhawk stuff I'm missing.  Wouldn't mind a set of Planescape either.

Hmmm.. So.. YES! the market is DOOMED! SELL YOUR COLLECTIONS! HEAD FOR THE LIFEBOATS!  I hear woodgrains are only worth $100 now! AAAAH!  Sell me your collection for $10 before it's too late!

:twisted:


It is possible that the economy will tank and not even your greenbacks will be worth anything. A booze and bullets economy. Otherwise I think your Woodgrains and R series modules are a pretty safe bet. Drag a few obscure 1940's comics from a garage or attic, some old cigarette card baseball cards or some old stamps you can't even use to mail anything with, and wonder who will want them in 20 years.

20 years from now the true rares will be even rarer on the open market as they move from the hands of original owners and small time collectors to larger retailers and private collectors wealthy enough to keep hold of them (and canny enough not to sell them for a song). The over produced and fairly common items that move up and down the collectable market will wax and wane, and maybe plummet from time to time, but don't look for the great Woodgrain sell off for a handful of magic beans in your lifetime.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:38 am 
 

JasonZavoda wrote:don't look for the great Woodgrain sell off for a handful of magic beans in your lifetime.

Lifetime being the key word.  This hobby's popularity isn't anywhere near the magnitude of baseball cards, stamps, coins, comics, etc.  Realistically it won't survive long-term, because the very few people today that are crazy enough to spend thousands of hours and/or dollars on this hobby are going to die off within the next five decades.  (That's actually conservative, assuming nobody ever changes their priorities in their old age and collects until they die.)    But that's also looking out pretty far into the future, hopefully much longer than 20 years.

Employing my crystal ball, I suspect values will continue to increase unabated for quite a while yet.  It seems like we keep setting records year after year.  Values for rares (and to a lesser extent vintage non-rares) have been in a bubble for several years and this is showing no signs of stopping.  As unlikely as a "crash" would be, I would find a modest market correction quite welcome.

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:53 am 
 

I think the thoughts posted above are reasonable. The rares will hold and/or increase in the years to come. There are still enough collectors out there who "need" to fill gaps.

What I have found troubling, however, is the value of the common items has dropped. Which can also mean that interest is dropping. Just a couple years ago, standard modules sold consistently at or above original retail price. The only exceptions were X1, B2 and maybe a couple others for obvious reasons. That dynamic has changed. I am watching this trend with interest. Even the H series is lacking. I just watched a H4 sell in the last day or so for around $16.

Now I will say that hardcovers have been doing well - and specifically the core three books. I think that might be a good sign.


And I could've bought these damn modules off the 1$ rack!!!

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:09 am 
 

The economic downturn we're experiencing now is somewhat reflective of our D&D collectables.

The prices in rare items have taken a slight hit this year, or perhaps a couple of years ago the market was just way to overvalued (the super baloon perhaps...), and this is a necessary correction.

It's a market that will rebound though, either way.


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:35 am 
 

Just to throw another thought out here... the paper used in the 19th century was generally made of cotton and linen with long fibers that were somewhat resistant (but not immune) to aging. Some of those old texts - if stored in a proper environment - still look reasonably good today (though clearly aged and deteriorated to some extent). The mass marketing of the D&D books and modules on short fiber paper isn't likely to hold up nearly as long - though storing in a very controlled environment and not touching them with your greasy hands will extend that.  But in the end, the pages will tan, they will become brittle and eventually deteriorate. So it is with humans it is also with books... ashes to ashes... dust to dust.

My opinion - enjoy the books you have. Whether you use them for play or not. Collect for collecting sake (a worthy pursuit) and not for money. When you die, there is a reasonable chance that whomever you gift them to will sell them at your estate sale for people like me to buy at a fraction of your time, effort and cost to acquire them ;)  Fortunately, thousands of the old D&D books have been scanned and digitized from cover to cover. While it's nowhere near the same as having the real deal, it does stand a chance (along with content on sites like The Acaeum) of being the long-term history record of that era in TSR history.

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:42 am 
 

Younger people have already begun to appreciate the old art, many or most of whom are not gamers at all. In the past ten years I've seen D&D-style line art appear on album covers, t-shirts, flyers for shows, etc. - look at the sort of boots & shoes that girls wear today. (I sort of have a skewed perspective, living in Austin next to a large university.) In the short term, this is a trend of the just-ended decade which is already fading, but in the long term it means that new generations are capable of valuing it.

Someone characterized nostalgia as a yearning for times that one never experienced, & quite a bit of antique/vintage collecting fits this bill. Look at what sells & who is buying it. Someone who pays for a 200-year-old piece of furniture is probably less than 200 years old. Fans of Golden Age comics were mostly not yet born in the 1930s. Walk into any antique/vintage store & you will see people buying stuff from before their time.

I've brought up this concept before, & have always gotten a negative reaction so I probably will this time as well. Nevertheless, it is valid & true. To me, D&D will always be about being 12 in 1981, but I'm not so self-centered as to believe that everyone in the future will share my exact perspective.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:57 am 
 

Though it is a much smaller field, it is no different than comics. Little kids like the anime style crap and superheroes with absurd muscles and powers, yet old comics are still worth a mint.


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:17 am 
 

JasonZavoda wrote:It is possible that the economy will tank and not even your greenbacks will be worth anything. A booze and bullets economy. Otherwise I think your Woodgrains and R series modules are a pretty safe bet. Drag a few obscure 1940's comics from a garage or attic, some old cigarette card baseball cards or some old stamps you can't even use to mail anything with, and wonder who will want them in 20 years.


I think the economy tanking is more than possible, but probable. Never underestimate the ruthlessness of the banking elite. They've tanked economies before; they will do it again.

I'd also echo bbarsh's noting of the more common items dropping in sale prices. Modules that used to sell pretty easily for $7-9 now are difficult to sell at $3-4. Even the early M&T assortments were going for $15-18+ not too long ago. Now trying to sell one for $10-12 requires 2 or 3 attempts.

  


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:24 pm 
 

D&D collecting is still small-time, but it's loads bigger than what it used to be. For me, it's meant spending less in many situations. In the 1990s there were fewer online dealers, the stuff was just hard to find unless you went to national conventions. Consequently I paid more for various titles than I would at today's prices on eBay.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:31 pm 
 

SimperingToad wrote:
I think the economy tanking is more than possible, but probable. Never underestimate the ruthlessness of the banking elite. They've tanked economies before; they will do it again.

I'd also echo bbarsh's noting of the more common items dropping in sale prices. Modules that used to sell pretty easily for $7-9 now are difficult to sell at $3-4. Even the early M&T assortments were going for $15-18+ not too long ago. Now trying to sell one for $10-12 requires 2 or 3 attempts.


I still get the same prices in my ebay store for common items as before, perhaps even more. The problem IMO lies with the auction format, which I think has fallen quite a bit and is probably doomed to extinction as a format for selling more common items.  More and more people would rather just buy something than fight other bidders for a week only to be outbid by a nickel.  

Example I can't sit a AD&D 1E hardback in my store for a week at less than $20-$25 before it's snatched up, yet they regularly go for less than that in auctions.  People want a 1E rulebook, they want it NOW, not in a week or so.

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 1:59 pm 
 

Badmike wrote: I can't sit a AD&D 1E hardback in my store for a week at less than $20-$25


Another factor is the 1970s-80s hardbacks. They may not be parchment but they're very sturdy & will remain on bookstore shelves for a long time. Their presence advertises the existence of old-school books, stimulating demand for more.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:04 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:
The problem IMO lies with the auction format, which I think has fallen quite a bit and is probably doomed to extinction as a format for selling more common items.  More and more people would rather just buy something than fight other bidders for a week only to be outbid by a nickel.  


Mike B.


Actually, this is precisely why I've never bought anything from Ebay.  The auction format turned me off right from the start.  That, and the fact that I have severe trust issues in dealing with some annonymous seller on the internet have kept me away.  

Instead I prefer to obtain my OOP D&D stuff from my FLGS, Amazon, or through private sales or trades here on Acaeum.  

Though I should make the disclaimer that I'm not what you might call a very active collector, and I'm not a reseller.  My collection is very small (compared to most of you guys') and I only buy infrequently and randomly, to obtain specific items purely for nostalgia value, rather than completeness.  So I doubt I'm representative of the typical D&D OOP collector.


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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:08 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:People want a 1E rulebook, they want it NOW, not in a week or so.

Mike B.


I think that's a very valid point. One should not underestimate that people are lazy on the one hand and don't want to waste time on the other.

This community is filled with die-hard collectors who are willing to spend months/years hunting for that one mint copy but it hardly represents the rpg community in general I think. I know for a fact that I could have paid a lot less for a whole bunch of books I own, had I spent more time looking for them.

Mr. Generic Roleplayer will most likely just go : hey, here's that against the giants scenario I wanted to play, hmm price seems reasonable, click buy it now and there you go. On the other hand, Mr. Generic Roleplayer will also not spend a couple of hundreds of $ to get a module because it happens to have a rare orange cover.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:56 pm 
 

Badmike wrote:
I still get the same prices in my ebay store for common items as before, perhaps even more. The problem IMO lies with the auction format, which I think has fallen quite a bit and is probably doomed to extinction as a format for selling more common items.  More and more people would rather just buy something than fight other bidders for a week only to be outbid by a nickel.  

Example I can't sit a AD&D 1E hardback in my store for a week at less than $20-$25 before it's snatched up, yet they regularly go for less than that in auctions.  People want a 1E rulebook, they want it NOW, not in a week or so.

Mike B.

I don't doubt it. I had an 8th print 1E PHB sell on auction for over $20 recently, and a few others I have seen approach or surpass that. The core books at least do seem to have a high demand now. Can't say the same for the 'lesser' hardbacks at auctions, though. I did get over $10 for an OA once, and over $15 for a WSG, but they seem to be aberrations. The WSG or DSG are hard to sell at all on auction.

  

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Post Posted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:49 pm 
 

xRalphx wrote:On the other hand, Mr. Generic Roleplayer will also not spend a couple of hundreds of $ to get a module because it happens to have a rare orange cover.


And tits.
Even though the average kid nowadays has money dripping off them compared to when WE were kids, they aren't likely to buy old stuff regularly.


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