Hi everyone,

Just thought I'd wander on by and pick the Acaeum denizens ' brains (said the illithid...   )

Even months before the U.S. economy officially went down the toilet (thanks, Dubya   ), I had noticed a definite decline in what my eBay buyers were buying, and how much they were buying things for.

Things that previously would inspire bidding wars, suddenly were going for opening bids, if they sold at all.  My tactic of deliberately starting auctions at 99 cents (in an effort to stop more money flowing into eBay's coffers than was absolutely necessary) began backfiring, so the minimum bid amount had to go up (which probably hurt possible sales).

Has anyone else experienced this within the past six to nine months, or it just me??  I can't figure out if AD&D collecting is going through one of its periodic slumps, if people have finally tired of eBay as a marketplace, or if the worldwide is really as bad as what it seems to be...  

Thanks in advance for your thoughts/input,
JohnH
aka Wandeirng Monster

! everyone loves cake!

some items went crazy. An A1 module for $51 while a D3 mono goes for $26? A Greyhawk Folio for $125?

Really strange stuff happening.

I'd call that business as usual. eBay is not exactly the haven of fixed prices -- its an auction site. Auctions get weird.

It could be that us collectors are getting down to the very end of what we "need" for there collections, So you're seeing less people bid on the same high-end items.

I know I'm only about 10-15 TSR products away from my collection being complete so I am only willing to fight for certain things... But I already have many items that usually go for $$$.

Mix that with a bad economy and eBay's bullshit and you get weirdness and unpredictability.... prolly similar to the way this was when it all started, when the rarity and values were less clearly defined

Wandering Monster wrote:Hi everyone,

Just thought I'd wander on by and pick the Acaeum denizens ' brains (said the illithid...   )

Even months before the U.S. economy officially went down the toilet (thanks, Dubya   ), I had noticed a definite decline in what my eBay buyers were buying, and how much they were buying things for.

Things that previously would inspire bidding wars, suddenly were going for opening bids, if they sold at all.  My tactic of deliberately starting auctions at 99 cents (in an effort to stop more money flowing into eBay's coffers than was absolutely necessary) began backfiring, so the minimum bid amount had to go up (which probably hurt possible sales).

Has anyone else experienced this within the past six to nine months, or it just me??  I can't figure out if AD&D collecting is going through one of its periodic slumps, if people have finally tired of eBay as a marketplace, or if the worldwide is really as bad as what it seems to be...  

Thanks in advance for your thoughts/input,
JohnH
aka Wandeirng Monster

It's not your imagination; I have empirical evidence of a slump in the form of sales figures for the last 10 years (and last four years I've been selling full time)l January was the worst January that I've ever had, by far....HALF the sales of ANY other year of the new century. February is gearing up to be my worse month ever....that's not a typo. WORST MONTH EVER IN THE LAST TEN YEARS.   Basically, like many other American I'm technically "out of work" these last couple months considering the money coming in is not even paying the bills (having to dip into savings), with not a single cent left over for anything else. Now, let this sink in, December-February are typically your best months of the year (going by past sales). So if I'm having low sales months now...wait until tax season in March. Wow.



It's definitely a buyer's market if you have money.  If you are a seller and you don't have to sell now, sit on it.  You will not get what the item is "worth", if even the minimum bid.  Check out some big sellers on ebay...heck, check out Cougie.  I happened to troll by his page the other day, hundreds and hundreds of sales for the opening bid.....I don't think he got a bid over the opening one on anything he's listed the last month. I've pretty much abandoned auctions altogether, they are frankly too risky (the items I'm auctioning right now are for a friend).  



Not only the US but Europe is in a recession right now. The jobless rate has soared, with layoffs from major corporations coming every day it seems.  Everyone knows someone (or several someones) out of a job right now.  To make matters worse, the dollar has actually climbed in the last few months (typical as investors rush to the American dollar, which even through all the recent problems still has cachet), killing internation sales for American sellers (almost half my sales typically are international).  



In times of recession, even people with money (yes, they are out there) tend to "turtle up" and withdraw from spending, particularly "luxury" items.  Now, selling games is very close to recession proof (gamers will always spare a few bucks for games, just like they will for booze), but along with all sorts of other "unnecessary" purchases the gaming industry is being hit also.  Talk to your local game/comic store and see how desparate the situation is there; I think we'll see the demise of a lot of the local "mom and pop" shops this year as people stop buying, limit buying, or look for deals on the internet rather than shop in a brick and mortar.  I'm a $100 a month shopper at my local store; I just recently slashed my buying budget there to less than half of what it is, and I'm sure many other shoppers are doing the same.



My local store has pared it's selection to the bone, and is getting rid of a lot of slow sellers; they recently had a half off sale of their remaining Dwarven Forge stock (selling out, and they won't carry it anymore); the latest casualty are the WOTC plastic minis which are being blown out at half price or less.  Not only that but they are limiting a lot of product to "pre-order" instead of carrying a wide selection of gaming stuff. I'm sure this scenario is being repeated across the nation. A lot of game/comic stores that were just making it won't survive this year and will go under; lots of opportunity I guess for those in the right place with a bit of cash.



So the thing is, it's going to be tough as a seller the next few months, if not the rest of the year.  I will say it's been absolutely fascinating to be reading the Wall Street Journal the last couple of months; the business coverage in the local paper or on TV is abysmal, condescending and prone to buzzwords.  I'd recommend to anyone interested in what is going on they should be picking up a WSJ sometime just to see the length and breadth of the financial crisis and the little ways it affects everything, even industries not laying off employees are in a slump or looking for ways to tighten the belt.  



But back to ebay, along with the financial crisis, the ebay model is failing and people are leaving for other venues, including Amazon. New sites like Ebid, Ecrater and Bonanzle all have more than a million-two million listings, while only a small percentage of EBay it's still a trickle down the drain and less choice for the buyer, less selection, which hurts sales for everyone.  When you eliminate a few million people from your seller base, sellers leaves also, sales will go down, and there is definitely a shakedown going on right now.  The nuttiest thing ever is that in the middle of the worst US financial crisis in the last 20 years Ebay decided not only to push through a raft of changes on their site (most of the them unpopular), they have also redesigned the site as to make it harder to read, AND cut thousands of customer support jobs in a business  where they were nearly non-existent anyway.  In business they like to call that a "recipe for disaster" and Ebay walked right directly into it with their new CEO.  



In retrospect, as soon as the depth of the financial crisis took hold, a lot of insiders say Ebay should have ground their site and operating changes to a halt and rode out the storm.  Ebay's new CEO, who I believe was operating on emotion and not logic due to huge stock price drops (down 60% the last year, or $30 a share with no bounce back in sight) and trying to justify his position after the departure of Meg Whitman, tried to push through when he should have hunkered down and reassured his base.  Instead, he pissed off his base, as well as handcuffed them, and IMO made the results WORSE than they should have been.  To top it off, the bottom in the Ebay market is still to come, and it won't be pretty (for sellers or ebay; buyers should collect some pretty good deals in the months ahead).





Mike B.

lawrenson wrote:Hi,

I have to say, the last few RPG Conventions I attended to sell stuff, have been very good.

Spiel was almost double the year before for roleplaying, and Dragonmeet was also up.

Personally, I think people are just a bit sick of Ebay.

At a Con, you can pick an item up, check if its maps there, see that you are happy with the condition. From Ebay you have no idea what you are getting.

Plus the fact that a lot of the time you KNOW you are being ripped for postage is a bitter pill, even if you factor it into your bid price.

A lot of things go in "fads". I think the Ebay fad is waning atm.

Cheers,
Malc

Malcolm makes a good point about shipping.  USPS just raised their rates in Jan, international shipping went up $1 a package. With another postal increase coming later this year, it's become cost ineffective for UK (or overseas) buyers to shop the American market anymore.

Mike B.

I've found I can still shift things at the prices I'd expect, but it's costing me more to buy things on account of the exchange rate.My monthly income from eBay hasn't changed all that much, but there has been a deffinate drop in RPG uncommon items, with only the rarities still demanding high prices. Presumably those who can blow that sort of money on a single item have ways and means of riding out the storm better than the rest of us. So their spending power is not as badly effected.

** expired/removed eBay auction **




Ok. Prices are back up.

On the other hand, it IS a great time to buy.

yeah, if there was stuff without reserves worth buying.... [hint]