I have a question about the Tsojconth valuations here.

The Rares page says:

Lost Caverns of Tsojconth (mono) Jan 28 00 5

$286  $515  $686  $858  $1030  $1144  


Yet the recorded prices say:

NM (in bag): $1057 (11/04)
NM (in bag): $1825 (8/05)
NM (in bag): $1895 (1/06)
NM: $2060 (2/07)


And so I am trying to square these figures with each other.  I realize of course valuation is tricky, especially once you get to the high end.

But this just isn't tracking for me.  Are the above figures aberrant data points?

Is there more recent data not available here?

Plaag wrote:Yes, yes, and some values may change when the site gets updated next.
The date listed next to the values is when the page was updated, not values.

ShaneG.

OK.

I wasn't trying to be a pain.  I was just wondering if there were some sales I missed or something.

deimos3428 wrote:This question comes up quite a lot.  The numbers at the bottom are just a few select samples.  Use the numbers in the table as a rough guide, and keep in mind it's always out of date, by definition.  (The numbers are computed from past sales, and are not extrapolated futurecasts).

Your question is quite timely, this one ended last night, and went for about what you'd expect:

** expired/removed eBay auction **

I agree that the Acaeums listed values seem to be right for that item, but that is from a guy that does not own a copy and never have.
If I did then perhaps I might think those values are on the low side...........
In any case, IMO $2000 is too much.

Of course I think the same holds for the listed value and sales of some other non-unique items such as ST-1......

From the description, it is thought that 100-200 copies of ST-1 were sold, yet they seem to be far more highly valued (three times as much or more) than an Orange B-3 of which only 72 copies were thought to have survived pulping/trash bins and of which NO Copies were ever sold to the public, and NONE were ever distributed to stores or hobby shops either.

Orange B-3

The copies that had been distributed to TSR employees earlier that day were ordered destroyed, and the inventory currently in the warehouse followed suit -- with the exception of one box of 72 copies, lifted surreptitiously from the trash later that evening.

ST-1

Estimates are that 600 copies were printed, though it could have been slightly less.  Unknown how many copies have survived, but one of the authors, Graeme Morris, doubts that more than 100-200 were actually sold at the two festivals (the rest were presumably pulped).  Contributor Ian Wright, who attended the 1986 Games Day convention, bought his copy there for 2.50 pounds, but also remembers a number of copies being distributed to retail outlets in the area (of which he was the proprietor of one).  Most likely the remaining (unsold) copies from the convention were shipped to retailers rather than destroyed.  Probably less than 50 copies survive today.

OK even if the estimate of only 50 copies of ST-1 are around today, I still dont know how one would price it at 3 times (or higher) in value than an Orange B-3 for which even fewer copies are likely to have survived to date. From the listing NONE of the Orange B-3's were ever actually sold, while 100-200 of the 600 ST-1's are estimated to have been sold and one satement indicates that the rest of the unsold copies were likely sent out to shops for retail sales........

Somehow the Acaeum states at the bottom of the B-3 page that fewer than 100 copies of Orange B-3 are likely to exist today..... My math is not so good, but I cant understand how it could be that many when only 72 copies survived the pulper/trash bin.........

Estimates vary, but probably less than 100 copies of the First print still exist today.  As then-TSR-employee Jonathan Coke notes, aside from the preview copies handed out to employees, only one box (72 copies) was spared the pulping order.

Near the top of the same page the statement says that ALL employee copies (of Orange B-3) were snapped up and pulped too......  

OK, if that is true, then how could there be as many as 100 of the Orange B-3's remaining today and Yet ST-1 less than 50???

The math and likelyhood for both of those estimated numbers being correct boggle my little pea sized brain.

The copies (of Orange B-3, sic) that had been distributed to TSR employees earlier that day were ordered destroyed, and the inventory currently in the warehouse followed suit -- with the exception of one box of 72 copies, lifted surreptitiously from the trash later that evening.  

Confusing statements that exactly contradict themselves..... and state exactly opposite remarks.

Sometimes I dont get it....... but then I am slow.........

Kingofpain89 wrote:From the above statement you are clearly equating value with rarity.  Obviously there is more to it than that.

You have an orange B3.  You dont have a Tsojconth or ST1.  Even though the Tsojconth and ST1 arent numerically rarer than the OB3, their apparent value to collectors is higher.  This is obviously bothersome to you.  So...you should either consider buying an ST1 or a Tsojconth, or you should sell your OB3 so you wont have to worry about it anymore.

Just my two cents.  

No, not entirely anyway.
I agree that rarity does not always meet with perceived value on the same level.
I stated as much early in my post.

I agree that the Acaeums listed values seem to be right for that item (Tsojconth, sic), but that is from a guy that does not own a copy and never have.
If I did then perhaps I might think those values are on the low side...........

Besides, the overall perceived rarity of ST-1 and Orange B-3 are about the same............... if you can believe the estimates that is. And almost everyone I know who owns and has commented on the ST-1 has said how silly and irrelevant the actual adventure is. (Yes, I agree that has little to do with perceived value either) While at the same time, the Orange B-3 is famous and sought after for at least relevant if not totaly good reasons. Yet as I stated, it is valued at one-third an ST-1.........

As for a copy of ST-1 ever making it into my collection....
Not a chance in h e l l
I would much prefer to spend that 2500 bucks on a complete Minty Set of R/RPGA/and a couple of Pre Pubs of other modules.....
Tsojconth?
If I could afford it, then that would be the one I would jump all over, along with many other items on the rares list I do not own.

My two cents, I've always thought the over inflated value of the ST1 has a lot to do with it being released overseas.  That, and I personally believe many more orange B3's survived than has been stated.

That being said, I'd NEVER pay the amount of money for an ST1 that I would for an orange B3.  Not only is the back story much richer and more interesting than the ST1, but there are many more ST1s out there than anyone thinks, bank on it  

Mike B.

lawrenson wrote:no matter what youre talking about, there is no correlation whatsoever between RARITY and MONETARY VALUE.

Well, in terms of statistical correlation, I would say that there is definitely a correlation between the two, although it is less than 1.

Anybody willing (and capable) to do some serious statistical analysis on this stuff? It might be interesting.

Other than hearsay and opinions, there has never been concrete eveidence of either OB3 or ST1 having a legitimate estimated number of surviving copies. If ONE box was lifted from the dumpster, I'd lay dollars to pesos other people lifted them too. And the thought of TSR just pulping unsold ST1's is ludicrous.
When you use the Acaeum guide, treat it as Wiki. I did a stupid amount of research on, and argued for a LONG time against the existence of a 2nd print Fazzle and for the black-foldered PotVQ being the first print, and it finally became "law" on the Valuations, but in the meantime a lot of people were potentially misinformed. However, since the vast majority of the people who would be able to offer accurate input on these subjects are either out of touch with gaming or out of touch with reality, we can only go by what evidence we are able to gather. I'm sure there are many other entries which are incorrect, but unless and until someone goes out and does the legwork on them.....
My opinion: Tsoj goes for less than the other tourneys/OB3 because it is nondescript, has no number, and to a lot of people is far uglier than its counterparts. As far as rarity, no one can say for sure how many copies of Tsoj were even printed. I personally do not think the number of printed copies should be "estimated" at 300; this mod was printed for Wintercon, THREE YEARS before Inverness and Tamo. What would help a bit is to find out if the "verified" stash of ten copies was boxed, loose, etc. What would help even MORE is to find someone who was actually AT the con. Using assumptions and guesswork, however, is not to me a viable option.

Aneoth wrote:How much will they bid for a Tsojconth?

$750 "as/near new", apparently.

Badmike wrote:My two cents, I've always thought the over inflated value of the ST1 has a lot to do with it being released overseas.  That, and I personally believe many more orange B3's survived than has been stated.

That being said, I'd NEVER pay the amount of money for an ST1 that I would for an orange B3.

Both are over-rated IMHO but ST1 much more so.
However given that that previous observation was based on OB3 at $800-1,000, not $3,050(!!!) like the most recent SW'd copy.

Badmike wrote:Not only is the back story much richer and more interesting than the ST1, but there are many more ST1s out there than anyone thinks, bank on it  

*nods*. Agreed on both, Mike, and that OB3 is very much "classic period" which is a plus to some people, I'd've thought.