Very little has any value, other what is proscribed to it by the one doing the valuation. Of these few items that do have intrinsic worth, they are usually because they fulfill universal needs common to every person, such as warmth, health, and so forth. Collecting is a rich man's game...

I wish I was rich.

A related question might be what is causing the rise in some of these prices?

I mean is it just a couple people with deep pockets bidding against each other, is it newbies getting in the hobby and being stupid, or has the valuations of some people simply changed that much overnight?

I think an alternative view (one that I think is more likely) is to consider whether collecting is incremental or not. That is, does collecting involve first a focus on cheap stuff, then medium stuff, then the more expensive stuff?

To put that in context, perhaps three-five years ago 90% of collectors were focused on satisfying their immediate nostalgic desires, which meant gobbling up all the common stuff they could get. I think most collectors were more concerned about checking out B2, X1, and some of other modules they never bought. Pick up those boxsets and manuals that you used a lot as a kid, etc.

Now these 90% pretty much have everything they need from this aspect and are now turning to the rarer stuff. So in 2008, now you have a LOT of people chasing items (such as the OCE) that is less abundant in supply and wasn't immediately on their radar in looking to fulfill their nostalgic needs.

With the majority of collectors now aggressively pursuing the harder-to-find items, price has to rise, all else equal.

At what point will the prices again go down?

That is an excellent question. Of course, if I knew I wouldn't tell you, but I don't think anyone does.

If my theory is somewhat accurate, then one should expect a lot of upwards pressure on prices.

The obvious things that might put downward pressue on prices is poor economic times and dwindling interest. With respect to the latter, consider that the heyday of the hobby was the mid-80's. If more of these people big on nostalgia litterally die off, and fewer people take their place (with the onset of 3E and 4E etc), prices would go down all else equal.

Another thing to consider is whether the flow of these items from attics across the US into collectors hands will become almost non-existent in a few years.

bclarkie wrote:As has been mentioned before White Boxes(OCEs in particular) more than any other item in the scope of items that we tend to collect here has an almost consistant cyclical pattern.  It ebbs and flows more so than any other item.  

This recent surge over the last few weeks is inevitably a direct result of the passing of EGG and the extra media coverage that has come with it.  This has certainly shone the light it D&D's past and thus has bought a renewed interest by some of those folks who may had forgotten about it.  I however would not rule out Ebays new hidden bidder policies to at least have a portion of this new surge as well, because its efectively an invitation to blatant shilling.  That said, regardless of your choice of adjectives to describe the person doing so, paying anywhere close to $500 for a OCE set(Chainmail 3rd edition included or not) is flat out dumb.  D-U-M-B.  You can try and paint it hoewever you want, but it DUMB regardless.  

As far as the current trend goes, I would be surprised if it lasts much longer than a couple of months(like it always does) and it will likely end up in relatively the same territory it  has averaged out to over the last 5 to 10 years (roughly $100 to $125), perhaps +$15 to $30.  OCEs in particular are not rare by any stretch of the imagination and EGGs passing nor any amount of shilling does not change that in any scenario.

I was going to say something along the same line so I wont bother reiterating Brian's comment.  But it is very interesting to see how an industry figures death causes an immediate, albeit short-lived interest in the genre by people that either played D&D only a couple of times in Jr. High or never played at all.

The whole situation is very similar to the deaths of Superman and Captain America in comics.  When DC "killed" Superman in issue 75 way back in 1993, they sold over six million copies of the issue.  Within a week of the issue coming out, people were paying ten times or more the cover price because stores had already sold out of the initial printing.  People who hadnt read a Superman comic their entire lives were buying multiple copies of it.  Same thing with Captain America this past year.  My local comic book store sold out of all of their copies within two hours of the store opening and had to wait for the reprint because their distributor was also sold out.  For the next few months people were paying $20 - $30 for the issue because no one could get a hold of them.

Now you can get Superman #75 for less than a few dollars in most cases and the Captain America #25 issue has already started to drop down to near cover price.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:
I don't think this is really analogous, and I'm not saying Gary's death is not going to have an upward effect on prices, but it shouldn't be limited to OCEs. Why aren't Unearthed Arcana's prices up 200% too? Gary has his name on a lot of things, and because he is associated with pretty much everything D&D, his death should have a broad impact on prices, if this theory holds. Now it may well be that prices for everything are up a lot recently, but I just don't see it. Similarly, I'm not aware of why Gary's death would cause a bunch of people not typically in the market for these things to zero in on the OCE and not the Moldvay sets which were far more popular.

I can't believe I am taking the bait.  

Ummm maybe because the OD&D White box sets were the first sets available.   Since there aren't any Woodgrains currently up for sale on Ebay at the moment, the White Box Set is taking their place for people to focus thier attention.  EGGs passing has focused attention on the origins of RPGing in general so its obviously going to point people in the direction of the originins of RPGing and not later releases of the same game or other RPGs. Any questions?

Since there aren't any Woodgrains currently up for sale on Ebay at the moment, the White Box Set is taking their place for people to focus thier attention.  EGGs passing has focused attention on the origins of RPGing in general so its obviously going to point people in the direction of the originins of RPGing and not later releases of the same game or other RPGs.

That's a good theory. But there seems to be a lot of other things to consider. Generally,

I don't know if collectors typically collect from the oldest to newest, but rather what first satisfies their nostalgic wants. Moreover, you'd think those just newly interested in collecting wouldn't pony up immediately for the super expensive stuff.

The popularity of these products would seem to have some bearing on what to collect, given that collecting is nostalgic. Why start collecting with the OCE that most didn't use? And the DMG, PH, and MM are probably more broadly considered as the origins of RPGing, given their massive popularity. Surely, these should get some boost in value... if only half of what happened to OCEs. Maybe this has yet to come, but I can't imagine tons of people interested in RPGs and who played RPGs just wanting the OCE and stopping because somebody died.

Moreover, the OCE's are not exactly beautiful creations. Many view the amazing artwork that came later to be one of the driving forces of their collecting (just look at the odd popularity of DCCs among 1e collectors).

Gygax dying will surely change this paradigm -- as you say -- but be responsible for such a dramatic price increase on specifically this one item and nothing else? I don't think it adds up.

Finally, has the price of mono's gone up by 200% as well? Surely this coincides with the origins of the game as well, coming out at the same times as the OCE. I'm not saying this hasn't happened, but it's relevant to a "going back to the origins" theory.

In my view the OCE prices and Gygax dying are largely coincidental.

bclarkie wrote:
I can't believe I am taking the bait.  

Ummm maybe because the OD&D White box sets were the first sets available.   Since there aren't any Woodgrains currently up for sale on Ebay at the moment, the White Box Set is taking their place for people to focus thier attention.  EGGs passing has focused attention on the origins of RPGing in general so its obviously going to point people in the direction of the originins of RPGing and not later releases of the same game or other RPGs. Any questions?

Nope............
I think you said it just fine.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote:
I don't think this is really analogous, and I'm not saying Gary's death is not going to have an upward effect on prices, but it shouldn't be limited to OCEs. Why aren't Unearthed Arcana's prices up 200% too? Gary has his name on a lot of things, and because he is associated with pretty much everything D&D, his death should have a broad impact on prices, if this theory holds. Now it may well be that prices for everything are up a lot recently, but I just don't see it. Similarly, I'm not aware of why Gary's death would cause a bunch of people not typically in the market for these things to zero in on the OCE and not the Moldvay sets which were far more popular.

You were told why the OCE and not the rest of D&D/AD&D, etc....
by BClarkie above.

Please re read his posts.
His statements make complete sense to me, even if not to anyone else.

BTW: I started playing in the late 70's and had never heard of Moldvay until I came here to the Acaeum. Perhaps they were more popular in your neighborhood, but I never saw them when I first began playing D&D. At the time I was in San Diego enlisted in the Navy. Most of my RPG shopping for D&D happened on the strip where the long haired hippies and high school dropouts hung out. Or when we were at sea, then through the mail.

The first D&D item I ever bought was a white box set and then later I bought a red box set. In between those I grabbed whatever I could find D&D related. Almost all of the items I ever found available were TSR. At the time I am sure I figured that they were just about all there was to be had.

If I were not already a long time D&D collector before now, and I had heard (as many did recently) that the creator of D&D had passed, then I think it is VERY likely I would have been bidding on that same white box set.

Moldvoy who?

Industry legend dies = prices up. Simple as.

Actually I'm not debating that. Here, from the sounds of it, the theory and empirical evidence seems to add up. I'm debating Gygax's death singular effect on OCE, which Brian and Aneoth have posited to be obvious. Here, I think the OCE price increase is more to do with the general rising of D&D prices, particularly those that are harder to find.

If I were not already a long time D&D collector before now, and I had heard (as many did recently) that the creator of D&D had passed, then I think it is VERY likely I would have been bidding on that same white box set.

First, I have read what Brian wrote, and I'm merely offering opposing effects that are worth considering.

Second, to your point, while I think many DO think of the OCE as the set to get to first collect, I believe the Moldvay sets were far more popular (and look a lot cooler imo) and thus would be those more commonly sought after by someone first looking to get into collecting. Maybe the sales records will show me I'm wrong, but I have a strong sense those Moldvay sets were far more widespread and thus a greater collector focal point at the outset.

Basically, it strikes me as strange that, on balance, one would seek the OCE as the first thing to buy when one starts up a collection. Rather, the change in OCE prices must be part of a general price increase, and/or a price increase more focused on the rares that we've been seeing over the last while.