I would argue it was not the economy that was strong, but rather our ability to take on debt. Consider: 1) GDP has grown at a real 2.2 percent yearly for the decade (which is very slow) and 2) the money supply (M2) has more than doubled since 2008. With such a larger money supply we'd expect, all else equal, for prices to double. This has been my observation of most asset classes, including RPG collectibles. To wit: real wage growth has been almost 0 over the past twelve years (I think it works out to about 0.1-0.2 percent per year). I suspect most of the increase in RPG prices is due to this accumulation of debt (new money), not increased productivity or growth.

So I would expect prices to fall if: 1) this debt has to be purged and/or 2) new debt is not easily obtainable. Right now there's about $5 trillion in zombie companies, and Lord knows how many other firms will join that status soon, so looks like a lot of this debt will need to be purged.

If we don't relent this week, I would expect (a non-technical) recession in a month (I mean, the April to June quarter may be -15 to -30% growth; the ensuing quarter(s) would also likely to be negative), and so the best time to buy anything might be at least three months out.

America has run up trillions in debt, and now the epidemic has punctured the balloon.
We may start a 2nd Depression later this year. Hope not, but...

Good luck y'all.

Tarmogoyf wrote in Recession & Collecting:This hobby has been red hot for the last 3+ years. No doubt fueled by nostalgia and a strong economy. Nostalgia's still there but the bottom is falling out of the economy. For those who were collecting during the Great Recession, I'd like to hear your insights as to what we'll see in the hobby over the next 6+ months.

Some people will be forced to sell things they don't want, perhaps at prices they don't like.  

If the government gives everyone stimulus money, there will be some people dumb/smart enough to use it to buy collectibles.  

It's obvious to me that some people are going stir crazy, spending way too much time watching news and playing on Facebook or whatever, including eBay.  My sales have jumped.  

The world hasn't been through anything like this in over 100 years if you believe there are sufficient parallels with the Spanish Flu.  It's hard to say what will happen.  

beasterbrook wrote in Recession & Collecting:I’m a numbers guy.. and the numbers are truely terrifying.. even best case scenario is almost unthinkable.. My brain doesn’t want to accept it

Italy has 60 million population.. currently 60 thousand have tested positive, that’s 0.1% of the population.. 10% of those so far have died.. this is mainly due to the basic collapse of the health system.. this will climb I think to around 15% (if not more)... they are talking about you need about 60% of the population to be infected to get a “herd” resistance.. that’s 36million people in Italy alone.. and probably 5 million deaths .. and that seems to be best case.. do the numbers for your own country.. and things will be worse in poorer countries.. India has over a billion people, mostly poor with poor hygiene to begin with.. so just to let that sink in.. Italy health system collapsed with a tenth of a percent of the population catching the virus

With the seemingly exponential growth of the spread, the real outcome will be shortly seen around the world and I expect martial law to come into effect in most countries in next 4-5 weeks.. the USA will go fast

Fuck I hope the numbers are wrong and I’m proven wrong..

I'm fairly certain those numbers are all wrong.  Italy is a unique situation.  This virus is not showing anything like a 10 percent death rate.  More like 1%.  3% at the worst.  Italy's population skews very old, with a high proportion of smokers.  Italy is a relatively small country with a heavy density of people packed together, and the government did not immediately put social distancing in place.  By the time they did, it was far too late and their older, densely packed population was already infected.

China has 1.4 billion people.  81,000 people have contracted coronavirus.  3200 people have died from it, which is 0.00000266666 percent of the population.  If you don't trust China's numbers (and you shouldn't) double them.  Triple them if you want.  That's still a TINY, TINY  portion of the total population that have contracted the virus and/or died from it.  And China was ground zero, they were blindsided and had no idea they were at the start of an epidemic and then when some brave medical people finally sounded the alarm the govt, in trying to cover up the epidemic cost their population weeks and many lives in finally taking measures to stop the spread.

Even given all that, they still only had a tiny fraction of the total population get sick, and the epidemic has only lasted about 2.5 months or so.  It's ending there now.

In the US where I am the federal and state governments have taken relatively fast action to cancel all activity and get ahead of this bug.  There's a good chance we'll see it peak and fade faster here because of those early measures.

The estimates of millions dead in the US from this are hogwash spread by our severely compromised media, a large portion of which is gleefully and willfully spreading needless panic for political gain.

Being just 75 miles north of NYC, I am too close to this whole mess unfolding less than 90 minutes from me.  I believe the next 10 days or so will determine if this virus peters out or becomes a real shitstorm.  I am one of the lucky ones so far working for an 'essential' company that has the technology to allow most of its workforce to be capable at home.  I pray for the less fortunate that this fkn thing passes quickly.  Be safe people.  Keep your families safe.

-SKA

SimperingToad wrote in Recession & Collecting:It seems to me that only certain parts of the hobby took off. Just speaking of D&D, the early stuff through 1E has definitely gone through the roof. I don't really see that for 2E and later items as a whole. There are certainly some items that are well in demand, such as many Planescape pieces, but in general, I don't see any huge prices for most things. Even the Rules Cyclopedia has remained fairly steady despite the demand.

This matches what I've been seeing for the past few years.

Thanks! Glad you find the reference site of use. I'm always on there myself, looking up stuff, or adding info/pics. I find the "unboxed" photos quicker than a contents list when checking a set for completeness.

The blog (www.WaynesBooks.games) is newer. I use it for deeper dives into specific games.

I had to bump this thread due to a conversation at my local game store; its mostly a Magic and Pokemon store. Anyway...

I had bought two old sealed booster packs for a Christmas gift, they are now going for triple what I paid. I thought it had something to do with a recent video where a guy pulls a $15k card. The owner is a great guy, gracious and a good business owner; he set me straight. He said the stimulus checks hit on a Wednesday and that Thursday was their largest sale day ever. He said he ended up doubling prices, then tripled on some older stuff, and have since sold out of some stock.

I used to think a recession would be ok for collectable prices. The recent eBay trends on 1979 DM guides and MMs seemed to agree with that. Never mind, I think I was wrong. Its all just free money which may repeat, causing a larger bubble followed by a vacuum as future sales are pulled forward. The spike is, at least in notable part, stimulus not organic growth. So there may be some good buying days ahead!

Keep in mind, I base my new conclusion on my education in communication. My cable subscription may also include CNBC, but I'm not sure.

In this vein, how are the people with stores managing inventories? Are you drawing lower to manage the risks you perceive?

w.r.t. the commenter who said that only the 1st ed stuff has really moved, this is pretty standard fare for any collectible though whether they be MTG Cards, early ferraris or (with some exceptions) Art. Only the oldest and rarest stuff really gets going.

finally, as an financial economist/analyst/trader who does this economics stuff for a living i wanted to make a point on present values and interest rate changes. I wont comment on fair values or whether i think rates are correct or inflation or whatever - just the maths. With 15 year yields moving from c.a. 2.5% to 0%. If you had (say) an expectation of $300 in 15 years time, that is worth ~$207 (=300 / (1.025^15)). today you can pay $300 for something worth $300 in 15 year because there is no discounting money over time. This jump alone can drive a huge re-valuation of assets like collectibles. Something similar happens as you move rates to 0% with respect to stock market valuations (until the coronavirus move, the USA had stubbornly high interest rates vs the rest of the developed world, so not surprising there has been an ameliorating impact via lower rates).