They just don't get it, do they? • Page 6 • Collecting General • The Acaeum

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They just don't get it, do they?
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FormCritic
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:30 pm

Cattledog...to answer your question about the loss of gamers when a new edition is put out:

This is a quote from Gary Gygax:

It is worth mentioning here that Williams was warned by a knowledgeable employee that releasing a second edition of the game as she planned to do would lose a large portion of the existing audience. This individual estimated the loss at about 50%. Subsequent analysis proved him to absolutely on target.

Here is the link to the interview...a really great historical source by the way.

http://www.thekyngdoms.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=37

Gygax does not necessarily agree with my point of view...I have lifted the quote from a longer paragraph.

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

FormCritic
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:33 pm

I do think it would be interesting to see what would happen with a retro movement at WOTC.

What if 4.0 were a deliberate throwback to the old school?

The kids wouldn't have to know....sort of like Coca Cola Classic....you could bring back the old product in a new way.

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

Cattledog
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:37 pm

So I guess the question really is why did they release 2ed? They had to lose half their customers to keep from losing all of the customers who would just get bored and leave?

It seems to me that there exists a middle ground between extreme profit-mongering and going out of business for the gamers and tradition. I think that another change (3.5 to 4.0) will cripple the game as it stands to a point that it won't recover. Besides there sure seems to be quite a market for the OOP merchandise outside of the rares. Quality always counts.

Hmm, no, I don't have a gambling problem, I'm winning, and winning is not a problem. That's like saying Michael Jordan has a basketball problem, or Def Leppard has an awesomeness problem. So why don't y'all pour some sugar on that?

FormCritic
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:42 pm

I know I am stacking up posts....

I recall reading Gygax's editorial about the coming of 2nd Edition in
Dragon. Now I'm beginning to wonder if Gygax wrote it or if my memory is wrong.

It would be in an issue that closely followed a reader's poll about content in the magazine.

(The poll asked questions like (paraphrased):

Q: "If we include more articles of the type you want then what do you think we should cut from the magazine?"

ME: The Ares Section. Cut all of it.

Q: "What other games do you want Dragon to cover.?(three lines provided)

ME: (On the three lines) AD&D, AD&D, AD&D.

Q: "Is there anything else you would like to tell us?"

ME: Stop wasting my time and money with articles about anything except AD&D. TSR can create all the crap super heroes and sci fi games you want, but please put them in another magazine dedicated to crap. Cover AD&D!)

OK...rant over....does anyone recall roughly what isses of Dragon had the first announcement of 2nd Edition, the reader's poll and the reply to the reader's poll? The issue that had the response to the reader's poll would be the one in which the Ares Section abruptly disappeared.

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

FormCritic
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 6:46 pm

Cattledog wrote:So I guess the question really is why did they release 2ed? They had to lose half their customers to keep from losing all of the customers who would just get bored and leave?

It seems to me that there exists a middle ground between extreme profit-mongering and going out of business for the gamers and tradition. I think that another change (3.5 to 4.0) will cripple the game as it stands to a point that it won't recover. Besides there sure seems to be quite a market for the OOP merchandise outside of the rares. Quality always counts.

They did it to revitalize the game...and it succeeded for a time.

Gygax's view (from the interview) is only one perspective.

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

g026r
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 7:04 pm

FormCritic wrote:OK...rant over....does anyone recall roughly what isses of Dragon had the first announcement of 2nd Edition, the reader's poll and the reply to the reader's poll? The issue that had the response to the reader's poll would be the one in which the Ares Section abruptly disappeared.

The periodicals index labels issue 103 as "First mention of AD&D Second Edition plans."

Dunno if that would be it though.

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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 7:31 pm

FormCritic wrote:
They did it to revitalize the game...and it succeeded for a time.

Gygax's view (from the interview) is only one perspective.

I actually find it very hard to believe without any hard data that TSR lost "half" it's customers upon the release of 2nd edition....and EGG's opinion, while vastly entertaining and interesting, might be a little biased on the subject. I personally didn't have half my friends who played first edition drop out...as a matter of fact, EVERYONE I knew bought second edition when it was released, although as time went on a few went back to old style gaming, or never just dabbled in 2nd ed. Ditto with the Forgotten Realms...everyone I knew bought it, if just to see what it was all about, but maybe half or less actually used the setting.
I guess it's impossible but I would love to see sales figures from 1986 (pre 2nd ed and Forgotten Realms) compared to 1989. I seriously doubt it was half in just three years and with the release of FR and 2E.

Mike B.

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FormCritic
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 8:30 pm

Badmike wrote:
I actually find it very hard to believe without any hard data that TSR lost "half" it's customers upon the release of 2nd edition....and EGG's opinion, while vastly entertaining and interesting, might be a little biased on the subject. I personally didn't have half my friends who played first edition drop out...as a matter of fact, EVERYONE I knew bought second edition when it was released, although as time went on a few went back to old style gaming, or never just dabbled in 2nd ed. Ditto with the Forgotten Realms...everyone I knew bought it, if just to see what it was all about, but maybe half or less actually used the setting.
I guess it's impossible but I would love to see sales figures from 1986 (pre 2nd ed and Forgotten Realms) compared to 1989. I seriously doubt it was half in just three years and with the release of FR and 2E.

Mike B.

In Dragon 107, which is the issue that had the reader's poll in it, Kim Mohan mentions in his editor's column that recently for every player who has joined the game another has dropped out.

(Incidentally, it is Dragon #112 where Kim Mohan responds to the poll and notes that the Ares section is gone but that...rather petulantly...Dragon would continue to devote eight pages per issue to sci fi and super heroes crap.)

This is not a statistic, but it is an indication that sales had slowed down by early 1986...prior to 2nd Edition.

It is interesting to read Gygax's comment about the decision to go to 2nd Edition, and then read his comments from Dragon 103 about 2nd Edition.

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

Badmike
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Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 9:47 pm

FormCritic wrote:
In Dragon 107, which is the issue that had the reader's poll in it, Kim Mohan mentions in his editor's column that recently for every player who has joined the game another has dropped out.

(Incidentally, it is Dragon #112 where Kim Mohan responds to the poll and notes that the Ares section is gone but that...rather petulantly...Dragon would continue to devote eight pages per issue to sci fi and super heroes crap.)

This is not a statistic, but it is an indication that sales had slowed down by early 1986...prior to 2nd Edition.

It is interesting to read Gygax's comment about the decision to go to 2nd Edition, and then read his comments from Dragon 103 about 2nd Edition.

Right, which just proves my point...people were dropping out of D&D long BEFORE 2E, I find it hard to believe that depleted total was HALVED after 1989 release of 2E.

Unfortunately, during the Blume wars the quality of AD&D published during the last years of 1st ed plummeted dramatically...especially with the WOG getting basically crapped on by the powers that be through substandard releases at the time. Since WOG had been pretty much run into the ground, the intro of the Forgotten Realms and 2nd edition probably breathed a lot of well needed life into the hobby. I know it revitalized our group.

I really doubt the "half left after the intro of 2E" statement. Unless there are records proving say 10 million in sales in 1988, then 5 million in 1989, which I won't believe unless I see it. Sounds very anecdotal; i.e., EGG ran into a lot of gamers pissed at the way he had been treated and told him "Man, I stopped buying D&D stuff after you left". I'd have probably told him the same thing had I seen him backthen!

Mike B.

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 2:08 am

We'd have to know what un-named TSR staffer Gygax was quoting in his interview in order to evaluate his statement. I do think it has at least some measure of validity.

I've been having a good time spouting off on this strand.

Very therapeutic.

Mark

"But I have watched the dragons come, fire-eyed, across the world."

flying_purple_monkfish
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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:22 am

Damn that brain

I do a lot of online rp, but never had to resort to miniatures. I admit, at times a map would have been damned useful for those players who seem incapible of geography (I am in the kitchen, player A walks into living room and somehow through the magic of see through walls, can see, talk and interact with people in the kitchen, upstairs and indeed, all the way across the state. Awesome. bah) but I think the only D&D game i've ever been in that's used miniatures was the lego we had at the nationals. Maybe i'm just wierd like that, lego minis are pretty damn cool though.

Anyway, I dunno, I fully support the around the world rp potential, but it somehow detracts from the face to face contact i've come to rely on. I'm a stay at home mom, Sunday rp is the only time I get adult human conversation! except the Mormons on thursdays but they aren't as fun.

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 8:56 am

flying_purple_monkfish wrote:but I think the only D&D game i've ever been in that's used miniatures was the lego we had at the nationals. Maybe i'm just wierd like that, lego minis are pretty damn cool though.

Lego minis might be more entertaining than a lead mini. Also cheaper, lightweight, more durable, easy to kitbash . . . aieee, not something else to collect!

Sunday rp is the only time I get adult human conversation! except the Mormons on thursdays but they aren't as fun.

Introduce the missionaries to roleplaying games.

Here's a Mormon-themed RPG called Dogs in the Vineyard that's won awards:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogs_in_the_Vineyard

http://www.lumpley.com/games/dogsources.html

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:03 am

The problem with trying to make predictions about the market situation for D&D and roleplaying games in general is the lack of accurate, verifiable statistics for the RPG market. I've heard people on Dragonsfoot, Wizards, and here on the Acaeum make all kinds of claims about how many people are playing or how many books were sold of which edition, but the truth is nobody really has any hard facts about this.

From what I understand the books for TSR from back in the late 70s and early 80s are apparently long lost, and there seems to be some doubt as to whether they made much effort to accurately track anything like marketing statistics back then anyway. The kind of intense demographic research that companies rely so heavily on now was barely in its infancy back then. These days WOTC and/or HASBRO may have very up-to-date numbers on this, but they're not talking.

I've read the testimonials by EGG and his contemporaries about the fall of TSR. They were there and have first hand knowledge of the events, so I believe their accounts to be true. So I believe Gary and Co. when they say the Blume Bros and that Dragon Lady who got ahold of the company were bad business managers and leaders, and even if I didn't, the results of their leadership bear that out. But I also believe there is a hint of bitterness on their part surrounding those events that at least slightly colors their accounts of them. (There would have to be, and for good reason)

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:05 am

Tangentially related to the Mark-Mike-Deimos-et.al. discussion, here's a link to a webcomic that has been using the announcement of 4E as a subject for the past week.

UserFriendly is an online comic that depicts life at an ISP. The humor is computer-oriented, but the past week has had D&D as a subject. Sunday's strip is always unrelated to the rest of the week's strips, so pay no attention to it.

. . . http://ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons/?id=20070824

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:19 am

Most of the discussion is centered around TSR losing 50% of it's customers with the switch to 2e. However as Mike pointed out those figures are a hard sell without real life numbers to support it.

I contend that the poor management, erratic production, and failing quality hurt TSR more than the introduction of 2e. The same is true for 3/3.5. in a sense. WOTC has flooded the market with expensive books of very poor quality material, (let me say that it is extremely rare that I pick up something and can't find some useful info in it somewhere) and hopes to spike sales by flooding the market with more poor quality material of a "new" edition. Its not going to work in my opinion.

My game store does far more business with OOP than new WOTC material. I stopped by yesterday and asked how much he sells in a week. His estimate was about 10 items of pre 3/3.5 compared to maybe 2 of 3/3.5 d20. He has an untouched shelf of new 3.5 material people aren't even bothering to pick up.

Last edited by Cattledog on Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:20 am

Classic. My new term for 3/4E:

D&D: The Gathering.

If you hit a Rowsdower, you get to keep it.

Agent Cooper
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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:37 am

See, that's the thing. The sales figures for one gamestore in one neighborhood don't constitute any hard evidence of nationwide marketing trends for D&D. Neither does just arbitratily guessing that 50% of people stopped playing when x edition was released. Somebody would have to do some serious involved research to find out what's really going on. I'd be very interested to know if Hasbro has done this, and what they found out. I mean, they must have done SOME checking around before deciding to do a big product release like 4E. That's a big step to take blind, and nobody in the corporate world twitches a finger without doing market research first in this day and age.

Cattledog
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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 9:42 am

Certainly, but WOTC/Hasbro is basing numbers off false premises new and poor quality is not equal to or better than old and good quality. My game store is in the D.C. Metro area and does a massive amount of business. I'm not going to assume that constitutes the entire country but all the market research in the world hasn't kept Hasbro from making some major mistakes.

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