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Tsojconth valuation ?
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Post Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:36 pm 
 

For those that are interested, here are close to current valuations for Lost Caverns of Tsojconth:

Condition Name|NMINT|VFINE|FINE|VGOOD|GOOD|FAIR|POOR
Value|$1,196.71|$1,077.04|$897.54|$718.03|$538.52|$299.18|$119.67

The valuations will be updated on The Acaeum sometime this year.

  

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Post Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 9:41 pm 
 

sanguinemetaldawn wrote:What I am arguing is that the Acaeum price guide affects the real world price, at least some of the time.  That conclusion seems inescapable, at least to me, based on my experience with this auction.


Sometimes the Acaeum Secret Inner Circle does their job and sometimes they don't.  I think a few of the guys were busy manipulating the prices on that last batch of RPGA modules and just werent able to devote enough time to the Tsojconth.  I assure you the Acaeum Grand Master of Value Manipulation will take steps necessary to rectify that in the future.  :P


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 12:47 am 
 

sanguinemetaldawn do not destroy the value of your item by getting Paul to write on every page, it is ludicrous to say the least.

Anyway it sounds to me like you're in a game (high value collectables) that you may not be able to afford.  You bought a high value item and immediately joined and started a post about it.  You are far too nervous.  Buy and enjoy some of the great lower valued collectables (1st ed series, Gazetteers etc).   Your item will increase in value over time but may plunder as well; when buying this type of stuff you have to be mentally ready for what ever happens.  I find that many people buy stuff like this for the wrong reasons (I.E. to see there $1000 turn into $5000 overnight or something) always get disappointed in the end no matter what happens.

I think you misunderstood this site as well.  Really this is a collectors site; not a stock exchange for collectable games.  Sure we follow the values and such but really most on here buy to collect.

Anyway you got a great piece of D&D history there, keep it, enjoy it, play it, brag to your friends about it and most of all do not worry about it.


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 1:41 am 
 

Somebody asked me a few questions way-back-when, so I'll answer that bit and let the rest of the thread die a horrible death.   ;)
sanguinemetaldawn wrote:The auction price is not "about what you would expect".  The auction price was, in fact, SET BY Acaeum.  Acaeum values it at "$1144".

It was nearly precisely what I'd expect. :D

I had estimated it would go $1152, actually.  It almost did; a teensy bit on the low side if the condition is accurate.  Don't ask me how I get my numbers, I think I took 3x$484 (where it had "settled" the day previously) and subtracted $300 in this case.  That value is quite in line with what one might reasonably expect unless there's a rabid bidding war.

It makes me want to know how the value was arrived at.
The valuations are gleaned from samples of previous eBay sales (and other verifiable sales, if any) by the Valuation Board, grades are determined by the Valuation Board, and it's all plugged into a very complicated algorithm that spits out more-or-less reasonable values for each grade.  At least, that's how it was done when I was on the Board over two years ago.  

The problem you're experiencing is a simple one -- some people take the valuations far too seriously and use it like a price guide.  These people bid exactly/nearly exactly whatever we happen to print.  We can't help that.

I also find myself wondering if there is price manipulation going on to maintain its value (though I personally think its worth more, and I am not complaining about not paying $2000 for it).

Absolutely not.  If anything, the pressure on Tsojconth has been downward over the last few years, until quite recently.  (I must admit I don't monitor every wrinkle in it's activity, I have better things to do.)  

There's no way even a Mint Tsojconth should be valued at $2000 -- though I'm sure there's always some nut out there with too much cash and not enough brains.  If it was Paul Jaquay's personal copy, that adds an unquantifiable amount of value.  You'd only know how much if you sold it with that information.  Gygax's death will certainly apply some upward pressure in the short term, as well.

People have described Tsojconth as less rare that some of its counterparts, because it is (apparently) more readily available than the others.  But is it?  What is that based on?  On the discovered stash of 10 described on Tsojconth's page?

In my case, direct personal observation going on at least five years.  It is sold more often than other comparable rares.  Speculating why probably won't help you.

From deimos3428:
"The numbers at the bottom are just a few select samples.  "

Right, so my question is, how are those samples selected?  Are they chosen because they were noteworthy (abnormally high?).

Nope, the ones at the bottom of the page are picked infrequently and semi-randomly by our intrepid sys admin, Foulfoot.  My opinion is that they're rather meaningless.  I certainly wouldn't use them to try to determine anything.

So I am wondering if, between all these factors, I did, in fact, get a really good deal.

In my opinion, no.  I'd suggest you got an average to slightly better than average deal.  There is no doubt that it's value will increase over time, but if you're looking for an investment, stick to mutual funds.

If you really want to turn green with envy, I'll tell you what I paid for mine.   :wink:

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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 3:57 am 
 

sanguinemetaldawn wrote:
Thats an excellent point.  I guess the bottom line is I want to see the raw data.


chummer....

you get to see the "raw data" here everytime one of these gets sold. the site being what it is, 99.9999% of the time, most of the collectors on this site watch the auction from start to finish anyway, some bidding to heist it.

sooooooo, if you had been lurking on this site for "years", you would have seen this and quite easily logged the prices sold..... easy :D

its like everything in life. be patient long enough and you will get something for the price you are prepared to pay, never mind what its worth.

valuation? well quite often i see things, Tsoj inclusive, sell for more or less of what it is "valued" at. i see the work and effort gone into by the guys here, and frankly, i would take it as a grand insult of the highest order, if it was for one second suggested that there was price fixing going on!

these figures either way, are just a guideline. just right now, go look at the completed sales on ebay for the R and RPGA modules and then go check the acaeum figures.....i think that probably blows the conecpt of "price fixing" or anything else out of the water!

wasnt it year before last that 2 Tsoj sold at gencon? or was that tamo's ? i cant remember now, but i seem to remember figures around $700.

i collect sometimes and get some things to invest in. but most times, when i sell something on, i get either the same or less back for it. is that me being stupid? not really. because the item i sell, is always to a friend, who i know is a much more committed collector than i am. if i lose $ on it, i put that down to the fact that i had the item for a period of time and had the pleasure of its company and the enjoyment reading it. am i worried about losing money on it? not at all. won't be the first or last time either.

if you lose some $ on it, then you do. if you were worried about that, i would have invested your cash elsewhere, where it is in a far more secure environment.

just on another side note, its prb not a very good idea to join a forum and then wade in there criticising its methods! you are guaranteed to get everyones backs up right away and assist you in the least possible way!

discussions on how items are "valued" have come and gone many many times on this site, in multiple threads. quick searches would have found them and there is normally always one convo going on about 1 item or another all the time. it would have been very easy to pick up how the "acaeum sets its values" on items. still surprises me that if you have been lurking for years, you havent spotted this.

but hey what do i know.

well done on your tsoj! if you are truly panicking about what you have paid, i will buy it off you if you like and then you have nothing to worry about.... and i AM being serious there.

enjoy your collecting!

Al


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 7:57 am 
 

killjoy32 wrote:its prb not a very good idea to join a forum and then wade in there criticising its methods! you are guaranteed to get everyones backs up right away and assist you in the least possible way!


What difference would it have made? This forum consistently practices hazing of new members. 95% of the newbie-bashing is dumped upon people who are trying to be as friendly & diplomatic as possible.

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:12 am 
 

sauromatian wrote:
What difference would it have made? This forum consistently practices hazing of new members. 95% of the newbie-bashing is dumped upon people who are trying to be as friendly & diplomatic as possible.


i dont bash newbies...

surely introducing yourself in a polite manner is always a start?

then to ask about the tsoj....and then query something...

hardly see how that would be so bad. but to accuse of maybe fixing prices in the same sweep, hardly does you any favours?

i was actually trying to be polite and diplomatic in my comment there. maybe i missed doing even that  :?


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:39 am 
 

killjoy32 wrote:well done on your tsoj! if you are truly panicking about what you have paid, i will buy it off you if you like and then you have nothing to worry about.... and i AM being serious there.

Al


Make up your mind Al....I thought you had no interest in tournament modules?  :P   So if there is a Tsoj at this years GenCon am I going to have you to bid against as well?  :wink:

What difference would it have made? This forum consistently practices hazing of new members. 95% of the newbie-bashing is dumped upon people who are trying to be as friendly & diplomatic as possible.


Frankly, I dont think Al "bashed" at all.  Yeah, there are some members that feel as if they need to give a certain amount of shit to any new member that doesnt follow certain unwritten rules of forum posting protocol.  But it is far from being consistent IMO.  Maybe I just have thicker skin than a lot of other people.  Sometimes it is warranted and other times it isnt...but from other forums that I have read, it is pretty tame here most of the time.


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:52 am 
 

well i guess i wouldnt mind one, but its like *meh* know what i mean? if i havent got one, i will live, if i have one, cool, i will read it, and then file it under B....or T in this instance or well in a "box" somewhere in the back room :p

anyway....back to work


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:53 am 
 

Surely you don't mean me, Saruman?


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:54 am 
 

killjoy32 wrote:discussions on how items are "valued" have come and gone many many times on this site, in multiple threads. quick searches would have found them and there is normally always one convo going on about 1 item or another all the time. it would have been very easy to pick up how the "acaeum sets its values" on items. still surprises me that if you have been lurking for years, you havent spotted this.

Small point of order, I don't think the VB ever shared it's exact algorithm for computing the values from the raw data with the Acaeum forums at large.  Nor do I think it should, as that would open it up to undue criticism for no good reason.  The finer points of the system are argued within the VB from time to time.  (I do not even know if the VB is still active, actually...I'm out of the loop.)

From what I recall, and it may well have changed, a single "base grade" is computed from an historically-weighted and grade-weighted average of all confirmed, graded sales recorded.  The remaining grades are extrapolated from that established base grade value using a static multiplier.  

Or something to that effect -- it's actually far more complicated than that, but there's an Excel spreadsheet to do the math, thankfully.  It's not perfect but it's good enough to get a reasonable ballpark value.  The value always lags behind reality, which typically means it's low for rares, because most rares increase in value over time.

Those that don't like the valuations provided are encouraged to track items themselves, and use whatever diabolic methods they like!

 YIM  


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:55 am 
 

killjoy32 wrote:well i guess i wouldnt mind one, but its like *meh* know what i mean? if i havent got one, i will live, if i have one, cool, i will read it, and then file it under B....or T in this instance or well in a "box" somewhere in the back room :p

anyway....back to work

Knowing you Al, you'll break my record.  You're on a real collecting tear lately. :P

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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:20 am 
 

deimos3428 wrote:
Those that don't like the valuations provided are encouraged to track items themselves, and use whatever diabolic methods they like!


deimy...thats kind of what i meant actually, not the "actual" formula that you lot follow or whatever. i meant the discussions that follow sales of rares, the values, ones sold before it and how it slots into value at the time. its done all the time and gives a fair picture imo.

does that make sense?

if it doesnt, blame it on work...i know what i WANTED to say, it just doesnt come out like that :D


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:21 am 
 

deimos3428 wrote:Knowing you Al, you'll break my record.  You're on a real collecting tear lately. :P


hehe :) well i figure i will get one some day. its bound to happen and in the meantime, its fun looking.

so does that mean the value of a warriors of mars book has now plummeted? :)

(yay i hear KOP and blackmoor shout)

:)


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 9:28 am 
 

killjoy32 wrote:hehe :) well i figure i will get one some day. its bound to happen and in the meantime, its fun looking.

so does that mean the value of a warriors of mars book has now plummeted? :)

As I understand it, if you get a deal, the overall valuation of an item goes down.  If you pay too much, it goes up.  Marginally in both cases, and tempered by grade.  It's a pretty solid model.

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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:00 am 
 

deimos3428 wrote:You're on a real collecting tear lately.
killjoy32 wrote:hehe :)

It's all those side-bets he won in the desert.

  

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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 10:18 am 
 

ExTSR wrote:It's all those side-bets he won in the desert.


er i think not lil-puppy :)

so frank....what tasty stuff are you bringing to GenCon that i might want this time round?

a beholder #1 p'raps?

anyway veering off-topic here.

deim thanks for that note. prb the most relevant to what i was saying really without kinda knowing how the valuation board work their magic.

Al


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Post Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 11:07 am 
 

If the Acaeum sets the prices of "rares," they do a horrible job at it. Perhaps on "reserve" prices for eBay auctions. But, every "rare" I have found in the last few months has been well below the Acaeum values (and off eBay, too.) And, that is a problem. I do not think they factor this in - they use eBay auctions (and maybe GenCon auctions) solely. Auctions by nature are whimsy and "value" is derived purely by those participating - the only "value" that is constant is the starting bid; you have to remember, some people enjoy the bid war and simply do not want to lose something, hence, increased prices for things that "should not" be that high. I've seen it, and I've done it.

So, in the end, the purpose of the valuation board is very limited, really. They might help get a vague idea of what something could theoretically achieve at auction, but that's no indication of its real worth.

And then, as I have discovered many times, the site is woefully behind the times - it is desperate for a full-on update.

No offense.


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