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Post Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:07 pm 
 

This lot might be of interest to those looking for these big box sets:


** expired/removed eBay auction **

  

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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:05 am 
 


** expired/removed eBay auction **


Where is the loose sheet from? Is it from that book?


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:31 am 
 

aia wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:Where is the loose sheet from? Is it from that book?


I don't have my copy of Chainmail nearby, but the sheet looks like it was transcribed from there.

  


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 7:19 pm 
 

dbartman wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:Whether most big ticket collectors have a copy or not, which I doubt, it will sell for a very good amount.  I don't think this module is more speculative.  This is a well-known item and they are incredibly rare.  To find one for sale in decent condition, is becoming much more difficult.

To put it in perspective, there have been 35 recorded sales on The Acaeum since 2003.  Here's a plot of the number sold each year.  I've added an additional one for 2023, assuming that this one sells this year.

Based purely on the sales per year, the forecast is for only one , maybe two, to come up for sale per year until 2036, then the number drops below one.

Obviously this can change, based on a number of factors, but it's fair to say that there will likely not be a lot of these coming up for sale, unless and until some of the big-ticket collectors collections are sold off.


Great data, thanks for sharing.

The item is more speculative by definition, compared to items a wider audience would know and relate to, like the boxes. And a lower number of sales would also drive a wider delta of prices in most instances, as we literally proved with recent prices from 6,600 to the 10k you quote on eBay. So more speculative it is, and I stand by my words.

Do you have the link to the last ebay sale for 10k? I also believe as per Acaeum own pricing rules and common sense, the last sale price does not dictate the next one. A weighted average does much better, as I proposed to the Acaeum and was promptly adopted albeit without credit. But that's ok.

  

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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:15 pm 
 

gregory wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:Do you have the link to the last ebay sale for 10k?

The last one that sold on eBay went for $1500, but it was trashed and incomplete.  The one before that (May 2021), in Fine condition, went for $6666.  A NM condition one sold for $10,100 in Dec 2020.  The eBay link has long since expired, but an archived copy should be available in our Rares Formerly thread.

The most recent copy (on ComicLink), which we recorded in VG condition, did go for $6600.  The trend line is Up, which is reinforced by the historical value graph on the Indexes.  stratochamp is correct in his estimation that this one, if complete and in as-stated condition, should clear $10,000.  The market is fickle however, so it's just an informed guess.

gregory wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:I also believe as per Acaeum own pricing rules and common sense, the last sale price does not dictate the next one. A weighted average does much better, as I proposed to the Acaeum and was promptly adopted albeit without credit. But that's ok.

The last sale price does not dictate the next one.  But more recent sales have a larger impact on our valuations than older sales do.  Our valuations-revamp this past February, which you seem to allude to, was not your brainchild and that's why you were not credited.  We've been doing weighted averages since the creation of the Valuation Board, almost twenty years ago.  In collaboration with dbartman, in Februrary we simply altered the formulas to better reflect market realities, which involved a lot of math and careful application of that math.

I think I do a pretty good job of giving credit where credit is due, but a shouted comment from the peanut gallery of "hey, your values seem off!  You should probably do a weighted average!" doesn't meet the threshold.

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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:08 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:The last one that sold on eBay went for $1500, but it was trashed and incomplete.  The one before that (May 2021), in Fine condition, went for $6666.  A NM condition one sold for $10,100 in Dec 2020.  The eBay link has long since expired, but an archived copy should be available in our Rares Formerly thread.

The most recent copy (on ComicLink), which we recorded in VG condition, did go for $6600.  The trend line is Up, which is reinforced by the historical value graph on the Indexes.  stratochamp is correct in his estimation that this one, if complete and in as-stated condition, should clear $10,000.  The market is fickle however, so it's just an informed guess.


The last sale price does not dictate the next one.  But more recent sales have a larger impact on our valuations than older sales do.  Our valuations-revamp this past February, which you seem to allude to, was not your brainchild and that's why you were not credited.  We've been doing weighted averages since the creation of the Valuation Board, almost twenty years ago.  In collaboration with dbartman, in Februrary we simply altered the formulas to better reflect market realities, which involved a lot of math and careful application of that math.

I think I do a pretty good job of giving credit where credit is due, but a shouted comment from the peanut gallery of "hey, your values seem off!  You should probably do a weighted average!" doesn't meet the threshold.

Foul


OK so in other words the last comparable sale was indeed $6,600 and it was for a VG condition if I recall, just like this one. So you were representing that I was wrong and saying the last sale was 10k but then when asked for the facts, it turns out those back me up. I accept your apologies :)

On the weighted averages I would also correct the facts. I don't care for the credits I never brought it up before this, I just do that now in reaction to the general tone of your message. Pricing and business is my trade and my training, but I've proved myself in my field and don't need the validation. I brought up that the methodology that was used for the price list was off, at least twice on this forum, many months apart. My last message about that suggested you weigh more recent sales higher, with specific examples. A few weeks later, that was implemented. I believe this had never been calculated like that prior, as per your own message explaining the previous methodology.

I see you have experts in d&d on the site but as far as I can tell no one that actually studied and applied pricing models before (or at least who would notice and correct a 2-3x discrepancy with market prices at the time). I just offered that expertise in the form of a message. It was implemented a few weeks later, and now the price list is much more accurate. I was impressed by how responsive the pricing team was. The correlation between the timing of that change and that of my suggestions is very high, making it highly unlikely it was a coincidence. That said, if it was, all the power to you. I just don't buy it, but who cares! And I always recognized that the pricing team is doing all the heavy lifting. Just check my messages.

There is ton of good on this website and believe it or not I'm a huge fan of your creation. I've said that many times. But I rely on facts and logic, even if that gets me in trouble with the powers that be. The forum battles on this website or FB groups are the plague of this hobby. I guess it reminds me of high school, in a bad way. I was bullied for being the nerd who stupidly stood up for himself using facts and numbers. Some people don't change.

Edit: I found our exchange on the topic. It was on Jan 7, 2023. You wrote that sales were supposed to be weighted by recency, but in the example you gave, 20y of sale were weighted equally as a straight average leading to the price on the price list. So the methodology may have been written to account for recency, but it wasn't being implemented. Maybe my message led the team to realize that. Maybe they were on that path without it. But the timing correlation between the comment and the change is statistically very high. And I'm just being technical because honestly who would give a rat's a$$ but d&d folks like us.


Last edited by gregory on Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:51 pm, edited 5 times in total.
  

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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:19 pm 
 

And it seems you have a habit of shooting your mouth off without doing any research.  Since you're clearly the smartest person in the room, I'm sure you can spot the elements of your last post I'm referring to.

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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:28 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:And it seems you have a habit of shooting your mouth off without doing any research.  Since you're clearly the smartest person in the room, I'm sure you can spot the elements of your last post I'm referring to.

Foul


This seems like the end of a missing message. Just letting you know so you can complete it.

I brought up my facts and refrained from personal attacks, so please do the same. The fact that I am active on your website gives you no additional right to insult me, Foul.

  


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Post Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:38 pm 
 

FoulFoot wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:And it seems you have a habit of shooting your mouth off without doing any research.  Since you're clearly the smartest person in the room, I'm sure you can spot the elements of your last post I'm referring to.

Foul


8O  8O  8O

  

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Post Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:03 am 
 

:roll: Your response is rather arrogant, with little to no understanding of what occurs behind the scenes.

The valuation updates had nothing to do with your comments.  I can guarantee that.  If you would have simply read Foul's reply in detail, you would have seen that we've been doing weighted valuations pretty much since the inception of the valuation board.

OK so in other words the last comparable sale was indeed $6,600 and it was for a VG condition if I recall, just like this one. So you were representing that I was wrong and saying the last sale was 10k but then when asked for the facts, it turns out those back me up. I accept your apologies :)

The last sale recorded sale at ComicLink is not necessarily comparable.  There are a lot of factors that go into a sale price (market exposure, condition, description/details, seller reputation, etc.).  Regardless, I couldn't see where Foul said that the last recorded sale was 10K.  Foul knows exactly how many sales have been recorded, and at what sale price.  Stratochamp stated that he believed that the 10K sale was the last one sold on eBay, but in actuality, there have been three known sales recorded since then from eBay auctions.  Two of those sales were for incomplete copies.  The 10K copy is likely the most comparable to #96.

What I took away from stratochamp's commentary was that this copy could match that sale price.  He's most likely correct, based on the factors involved with this copy, and his wealth of expertise on the topic.

  


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Post Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 10:05 am 
 

dbartman wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay::roll: Your response is rather arrogant, with little to no understanding of what occurs behind the scenes.

The valuation updates had nothing to do with your comments.  I can guarantee that.  If you would have simply read Foul's reply in detail, you would have seen that we've been doing weighted valuations pretty much since the inception of the valuation board.


The last sale recorded sale at ComicLink is not necessarily comparable.  There are a lot of factors that go into a sale price (market exposure, condition, description/details, seller reputation, etc.).  Regardless, I couldn't see where Foul said that the last recorded sale was 10K.  Foul knows exactly how many sales have been recorded, and at what sale price.  Stratochamp stated that he believed that the 10K sale was the last one sold on eBay, but in actuality, there have been three known sales recorded since then from eBay auctions.  Two of those sales were for incomplete copies.  The 10K copy is likely the most comparable to #96.

What I took away from stratochamp's commentary was that this copy could match that sale price.  He's most likely correct, based on the factors involved with this copy, and his wealth of expertise on the topic.


It was Bill who mentioned he believed the last sale was 10k on eBay, I just asked for the link. Foul then confirmed there was such a sale but in 2020. I can correct my message to clarify it was Bill, but the important part is that (a) the price fluctuates greatly on such a low volume item and (b) the last comparable sale, which I still believe to be the ComicLink one based on stated conditions, is only one variable.

I think Bill's prediction is as good as any, on that basis. I didn't dispute it, I provided additional information but got corrected incorrectly on the last sale price.

Then old people being old people (or at least some), instead of simply acknowledgeing that a newbie, god forbid, was right on the completely inconsequential "last price" question, I have to endure a series of statements including yours, given social dynamics on this and most forums, about conditions (yes we all know that it affects prices, but we have established that the last VG sale is the closest recent one condition to the new item, and I didn't make a prediction or anything about 10k - I just provided another data point for god sakes!)

On the pricing board, yet again (sigh) I provided my facts.and they are all verifiable on this forum, and also who the *** cares!? The example provided in January 2023 by Foul clearly showed a straight average, not weighted at all, over 20 years. The prices on the board were 2x lower than market on average, another sure sign the methodology was off. I posted a message providing some examples, after posting  month's prior another message to mention the need to weigh recent sales higher, and there was a change. Maybe you just weighted recent items much higher than you did before, even if the example from Foul didn't show any weighting. Like I said, if that change happened regardless of my message, then all the power to you. I find that strange but it's not impossible, and again who cares. I made a comment that I wasn't credited for the change, with a smiley face, and given that I was right on the last price I guess this was the best next angle to fuel a pointless debate and "show me".

I'm sorry I hurt the pride of some sweating away on the pricing board. I value their work hugely. My contribution is zero compared to their years of endless and thankless efforts. I keep saying that. I kiss the rings and bow down in the hope that the Acaeum Gods will forgive me, one day. Please, please, highness, forgive me for the arrogance of thinking I may ever have had a small impact on the pricing forum of this grandiose creation, or that my last price record for an item may contradict that of the greatest d&d expert of all times (and Bill, I actually believe you are, so you can remove my sarcastic tone from that comment).

Life goes on. Thanks for tolerating me, miserable worm, on this website.

  


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Post Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 6:07 pm 
 

Don't drag me into this Greg!
Having seen the pictures of #96, and from them guessing that this item is in EX (or better) condition, I could have been more clear that the last COMPARABLE condition Lost Tamoachan ebay sale was for just under $10,000. It turns out it was just over $10,000. I was pretty close working from memory :-)


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Post Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2023 7:31 pm 
 

stratochamp wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:Don't drag me into this Greg!
Having seen the pictures of #96, and from them guessing that this item is in EX (or better) condition, I could have been more clear that the last COMPARABLE condition Lost Tamoachan ebay sale was for just under $10,000. It turns out it was just over $10,000. I was pretty close working from memory :-)


I can't make you do anything you don't want to do, Bill :) and tbh wished I hadn't dared to comment in the first place. Thanks for the clarification. I'd never assume that something is EX without much more information personally, but we are all free to speculate and share data points on various conditions, as long as everyone understands one simple truth ultimately: it doesn't matter.

  


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Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2023 12:24 am 
 

I have no idea what you mean by it doesn't matter, but moving on.
I thought I had made the post indicating that the seller sent me many pictures of his #96 when I was helping him to realize he did in fact have all of the pages. Seeing all of those pages led me to think that his copy is likely in approximately EX condition and the last time an EX or better copy was sold on ebay it sold for just about $10,000. There is a better summary of what I was attempting to communicate.


Shrink is not a condition

  


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Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:08 am 
 

stratochamp wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:I have no idea what you mean by it doesn't matter, but moving on.
I thought I had made the post indicating that the seller sent me many pictures of his #96 when I was helping him to realize he did in fact have all of the pages. Seeing all of those pages led me to think that his copy is likely in approximately EX condition and the last time an EX or better copy was sold on ebay it sold for just about $10,000. There is a better summary of what I was attempting to communicate.


By it doesn't matter I meant that in the grand scheme of things it is not an important debate, and people should not make a mountain out of a molehill as happens occasionally on this and many d&d forums, and did here. But I am referring to my exchange with the other forum members not with you, and the main point of contention was the change in methodology for the pricing board.

Thanks for the clarification on the last comparable sale on eBay.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:13 am 
 

This could be a decent snag for someone looking for this in SW:


** expired/removed eBay auction **


It's not in the best condition, but it is in SW.

  

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Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:39 am 
 

dbartman wrote in Interesting Items Currently on eBay:This could be a decent snag for someone looking for this in SW:


** expired/removed eBay auction **


It's not in the best condition, but it is in SW.


I think that lasted about 5 minutes after your post.

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Post Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2023 9:43 am 
 

Something you don’t see every day… a 5th+ printing of the DM screen in SW.  Nice copy, but I don’t see it selling at anything close to what the seller wants. There is an OBO option.


** expired/removed eBay auction **



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