Hi,

weirdly, the prices arent going up when viewed from this side of the Pond.

The falling Dollar just makes most things (as most very rare items are US-based) seem a bit cheaper.

Cheers,
malc

Deadlord39 wrote:If you say, for example, that Tsoj has gone up 20% from an initial value of $1K dollars, then it is worth $1.2K dollars now. The PRICE is going up, what is going down is the cost. The Euro and Pound rape the dollar, so it costs you less pounds/euros to buy one now than it did when it cost $1K dollars.

This just sums up the egotistical notion that the USD is the world's currency.

Aneoth wrote:neither is the Euro, though many think it is.

Of course not!  The Canadian Dollar is the one to rule them all.  Nothing beats a beaver nickel or a moose quarter!

Deadlord39 wrote:My opinion: Tsoj goes for less than the other tourneys/OB3 because:

-it is nondescript,
-has no number,
-and to a lot of people is far uglier than its counterparts.

As far as rarity, no one can say for sure how many copies of Tsoj were even printed. I personally do not think the number of printed copies should be "estimated" at 300; this mod was printed for Wintercon, THREE YEARS before Inverness and Tamo. What would help a bit is to find out if the "verified" stash of ten copies was boxed, loose, etc. What would help even MORE is to find someone who was actually AT the con. Using assumptions and guesswork, however, is not to me a viable option.

OK, I'll just lay it all out...

First, as I am sure several people have already figured out, its not a coincidence that I joined the same night this auction closed.  While I have lurked on and off here for years, this issue has prompted me to join.

I was the winning bidder on the auction that ended yesterday.


Other important relevant facts:

The person I bought Tsojconth from was at Wintercon V and purchased it himself from there.

He says he might have played in the tournament, but isn't sure, as this was more than 3 decades ago.

The person in question is, in fact, Paul Jaquays.  Yes, that Paul Jaquays (Dark Tower, Caverns of Thracia, etc).

Mr. Jaquays has agreed to furnish me with a notarized Letter of Provenance, including his narrative of how/where he got it (Wintercon V), and his contact information so that a buyer can corroborate my narrative.

I am considering asking Mr. Jaquays to initial and date each page in the lower margin to both guard against claims of counterfeiting, and to indicate that it was his personal copy.  I have not made a decision on this yet, as I am wary of potentially lowering the value of the scenario, but I am probably going to ask for this.  Especially since I am now wondering how many other "known designers" had personal copies of Tsojconth.  It wouldn't be surprising if Frank Metzner or someone else had one, but there can't be that many.

I have emailed the WinterCon contact guy to try to find out how many actual copies were produced and any other relevant facts.  Who knows what I will get in response.

The polybag the module is in is the original that he purchased it in at the Con.




Next:

The auction price is not "about what you would expect".  The auction price was, in fact, SET BY Acaeum.  Acaeum values it at "$1144".  

The bid I had to beat [by w***r( 345)] was    US $1,143.97

And this makes me uncomfortable.

It makes me wonder if someone will decide tomorrow its only worth $800, then I lose $350.

It makes me want to know how the value was arrived at.  

I also find myself wondering if there is price manipulation going on to maintain its value (though I personally think its worth more, and I am not complaining about not paying $2000 for it).

I understand quite well: it is really worth what a buyer is willing to pay.

I understand that this site is essentially the premier authority on the value of rarities, and I don't have a problem with that.  There is no doubt this is the foremost concentration of D&D collectors on the net.  Mr. Jaquays told me he was stunned by the price it went for.



Now I was willing to pay that closing price for several reasons.  While Deadlord39 gives several reasons he thinks it may not be worth so much, here's why I think it may be worth quite a lot.

1) The character of Iggwilv.
In the original, Iggwilv is a male archmage who dies.  In S4, Iggwilv is a female who escapes.  And Iggwilv is an actively developed character in the D&D canon, with James Jacobs publishing an article on Grazzt referencing Iggwilv last fall in the new online Dragon magazine, where "she" is described as the "witch-queen", in accordance with Gary's changes to the character in S4.

2) The Tsojc*o*nth typo.
When asked, Gary said, it was supposed to be called Tsojcanth from the beginning, and he referred to Tsojconth as a typo.


3) Counter arguing Deadlord
"-it is nondescript,  
-and to a lot of people is far uglier than its counterparts."
I am not convinced this actually lowers the value.  We are talking about one of the the very, very first modules ever.  That very crudity arguably increases its value.

4) It includes the original publication of other D&D classic IP

5) This is Gary Gygax's first published module


Against:

1) "has no number"

This is the one real argument against its value.  It is impossible to track these things, whether for total number in existence or counterfeits.  And thats why I am wondering to what degree we are seeing these re-sold versus newly available copies.  Its also why I am leaning heavily toward asking Mr. Jaquays to sign and initial mine.  There is only one copy of Tsojconth that was Paul Jaquays' personal copy, and it will be trivial to prove any other fakes or counterfeits to be so.



People have described Tsojconth as less rare that some of its counterparts, because it is (apparently) more readily available than the others.  But is it?  What is that based on?  On the discovered stash of 10 described on Tsojconth's page?

Ultimately, the supply/demand curve exerts an enormous influence on the value, unsurprisingly.

In light of actual purchase prices of roughly $2000, and an estimated valuation of $1150, I am wondering where those purchase prices come from, and how that valuation was estimated.


From deimos3428:
"The numbers at the bottom are just a few select samples.  "

Right, so my question is, how are those samples selected?  Are they chosen because they were noteworthy (abnormally high?).  Was the estimated value arrived at when the 10 copies were discovered?  Does anyone actually know how many copies were printed?

No copies of Tsojconth were available at GenCon Indy last year, yet

-Palace of the Vampire Queen
-Pharaoh
-Quest for "theJazzlewood"
-Palace of the Vampire Queen
-"Rawasia"

...were available last year, along with 2 Brown Box D&D.
So are we seeing that people buy Tsojconth and decide to keep it, but not other stuff?

Edit:
More about the auction I won: the auction was poorly promoted because Mr. Jaquays had no inkling of its real value, though the listing itself had good levels of detail.  Further, the end time for the auction (Wednesday afternoon/evening?), the time of year (after Tax Day but before people get their federal rebates), and the economic timing (in the middle of a slowdown/recession) may all have depressed the price.

So I am wondering if, between all these factors, I did, in fact, get a really good deal.

Oh, all right, I'll just lay it out too.
Your best bet is to roll up the Tsoj and smoke it as soon as it arrives. You are in dire need of a replacement for the crack you are smoking. The Acaeum is NOT a "premier site" for valuations. You haven't lurked here for years, or you wouldn't be crazy enough to fire salvos at members you don't even know for "manipulating" prices, you would already know about the valuation system. I could have told you it would go for $1,000-$1,200. ANYONE here could have told you that.
I'll believe it is Paul Jaquays when I meet him with his Tsoj in hand. If and when that happens, it will be worth............ $1,000-$1,200. I could give a shit if the Dalai Lama used the thing as a mat to sit on while he meditated. I could care less if Marilyn Monroe owned it, and let JFK leaf through it while she was pleasuring him. The value will not change due to it being Jaquays, and if you are crazy enough to have him scribble on it, you're a nutcase. Might as well have Henry Ford key your original Model T right across the hood.
I've seen Tsojs come and go, as has everyone else here, and it goes for the stated price. Simple as pie.
Welcome to the forum, Red!

http://www.acaeum.com/frontdesk/formulas.html

ShaneG.

Plaag wrote:http://www.acaeum.com/frontdesk/formulas.html

ShaneG.

Thanks for the link.

sanguinemetaldawn wrote:
OK, I'll just lay it all out...

First, as I am sure several people have already figured out, its not a coincidence that I joined the same night this auction closed.  While I have lurked on and off here for years, this issue has prompted me to join.

I was the winning bidder on the auction that ended yesterday.


Other important relevant facts:

The person I bought Tsojconth from was at Wintercon V and purchased it himself from there.

He says he might have played in the tournament, but isn't sure, as this was more than 3 decades ago.

The person in question is, in fact, Paul Jaquays.  Yes, that Paul Jaquays (Dark Tower, Caverns of Thracia, etc).

Mr. Jaquays has agreed to furnish me with a notarized Letter of Provenance, including his narrative of how/where he got it (Wintercon V), and his contact information so that a buyer can corroborate my narrative.

I am considering asking Mr. Jaquays to initial and date each page in the lower margin to both guard against claims of counterfeiting, and to indicate that it was his personal copy.  I have not made a decision on this yet, as I am wary of potentially lowering the value of the scenario, but I am probably going to ask for this.  Especially since I am now wondering how many other "known designers" had personal copies of Tsojconth.  It wouldn't be surprising if Frank Metzner or someone else had one, but there can't be that many.

I have emailed the WinterCon contact guy to try to find out how many actual copies were produced and any other relevant facts.  Who knows what I will get in response.

The polybag the module is in is the original that he purchased it in at the Con.




Next:

The auction price is not "about what you would expect".  The auction price was, in fact, SET BY Acaeum.  Acaeum values it at "$1144".  

The bid I had to beat [by w***r( 345)] was    US $1,143.97

And this makes me uncomfortable.

It makes me wonder if someone will decide tomorrow its only worth $800, then I lose $350.

It makes me want to know how the value was arrived at.  

I also find myself wondering if there is price manipulation going on to maintain its value (though I personally think its worth more, and I am not complaining about not paying $2000 for it).

I understand quite well: it is really worth what a buyer is willing to pay.

I understand that this site is essentially the premier authority on the value of rarities, and I don't have a problem with that.  There is no doubt this is the foremost concentration of D&D collectors on the net.  Mr. Jaquays told me he was stunned by the price it went for.



Now I was willing to pay that closing price for several reasons.  While Deadlord39 gives several reasons he thinks it may not be worth so much, here's why I think it may be worth quite a lot.

1) The character of Iggwilv.
In the original, Iggwilv is a male archmage who dies.  In S4, Iggwilv is a female who escapes.  And Iggwilv is an actively developed character in the D&D canon, with James Jacobs publishing an article on Grazzt referencing Iggwilv last fall in the new online Dragon magazine, where "she" is described as the "witch-queen", in accordance with Gary's changes to the character in S4.

2) The Tsojc*o*nth typo.
When asked, Gary said, it was supposed to be called Tsojcanth from the beginning, and he referred to Tsojconth as a typo.


3) Counter arguing Deadlord
"-it is nondescript,  
-and to a lot of people is far uglier than its counterparts."
I am not convinced this actually lowers the value.  We are talking about one of the the very, very first modules ever.  That very crudity arguably increases its value.

4) It includes the original publication of other D&D classic IP

5) This is Gary Gygax's first published module


Against:

1) "has no number"

This is the one real argument against its value.  It is impossible to track these things, whether for total number in existence or counterfeits.  And thats why I am wondering to what degree we are seeing these re-sold versus newly available copies.  Its also why I am leaning heavily toward asking Mr. Jaquays to sign and initial mine.  There is only one copy of Tsojconth that was Paul Jaquays' personal copy, and it will be trivial to prove any other fakes or counterfeits to be so.



People have described Tsojconth as less rare that some of its counterparts, because it is (apparently) more readily available than the others.  But is it?  What is that based on?  On the discovered stash of 10 described on Tsojconth's page?

Ultimately, the supply/demand curve exerts an enormous influence on the value, unsurprisingly.

In light of actual purchase prices of roughly $2000, and an estimated valuation of $1150, I am wondering where those purchase prices come from, and how that valuation was estimated.


From deimos3428:
"The numbers at the bottom are just a few select samples.  "

Right, so my question is, how are those samples selected?  Are they chosen because they were noteworthy (abnormally high?).  Was the estimated value arrived at when the 10 copies were discovered?  Does anyone actually know how many copies were printed?

No copies of Tsojconth were available at GenCon Indy last year, yet

-Palace of the Vampire Queen
-Pharaoh
-Quest for "theJazzlewood"
-Palace of the Vampire Queen
-"Rawasia"

...were available last year, along with 2 Brown Box D&D.
So are we seeing that people buy Tsojconth and decide to keep it, but not other stuff?

Edit:
More about the auction I won: the auction was poorly promoted because Mr. Jaquays had no inkling of its real value, though the listing itself had good levels of detail.  Further, the end time for the auction (Wednesday afternoon/evening?), the time of year (after Tax Day but before people get their federal rebates), and the economic timing (in the middle of a slowdown/recession) may all have depressed the price.

So I am wondering if, between all these factors, I did, in fact, get a really good deal.

You mention supply and demand curves, yet it's not apparent you appreciate what those mean. Value is 100% subjective.

On a separate note, while the Acaeum's data is interesting, I think it would be more interesting (if perhaps less feasible) for one to chart sale prices over the last 5 or 10 years. Not only would this provide more information, but it would also lessen the perception that the Acaeum is somehow setting price, or that its "the price you should bid if you want the item".

sanguinemetaldawn wrote:To be clear, I am not arguing that the Acaeum is setting the price.  What I am arguing is that the Acaeum price guide affects the real world price, at least some of the time.  That conclusion seems inescapable, at least to me, based on my experience with this auction.

What is the real world price? And how is that derived?

ShaneG.