shadeun wrote in Recession & Collecting:In this vein, how are the people with stores managing inventories? Are you drawing lower to manage the risks you perceive?

Not drawing lower on purpose, but the stimulus check buying spree has slammed my inventory levels. That sugar rush does seem to be wearing off though.

I remember from the last one: Recessions are a great time to stock up on inventory. Everything's cheaper and more available.

shadeun wrote in Recession & Collecting:finally, as an financial economist/analyst/trader who does this economics stuff for a living i wanted to make a point on present values and interest rate changes. I wont comment on fair values or whether i think rates are correct or inflation or whatever - just the maths. With 15 year yields moving from c.a. 2.5% to 0%. If you had (say) an expectation of $300 in 15 years time, that is worth ~$207 (=300 / (1.025^15)). today you can pay $300 for something worth $300 in 15 year because there is no discounting money over time.

The "financial" interest rate is not accurately measuring the natural rate of interest, people's actual rate of time preference or diminishing marginal utility. We still discount the future heavily. Low interest won't inflate prices because we don't discount, but because we have artificial access to cheap money we won't have to pay back until much later (or ever), which increases the demand for assets.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote in Recession & Collecting: We still discount the future heavily. Low interest won't inflate prices because we don't discount, but because we have artificial access to cheap money we won't have to pay back until much later (or ever), which increases the demand for assets.

this is the same thing. what you say is just expressing the phenomena in another way. if you valued money in any other way there would be arbitrage. Cheap money means a dollar today is closer in value to a dollar tomorrow than previously.

tbh, as someone who is borrowing 100's of thousands of GBP currently to purchase a home, clearly rates are having an impact, houses are going in 2-3 days where i'm at. (where they would clear in a week/two before). The mortgage value i have to play (and can lock in for 10 years) is around 60% of what i was offered 3 months ago (and i have normal credit risk). In the UK its had an impact - though the clear winning impact in the USA seems to be the $1200 gov't cheque.

Obviously heaps of other risk in D&D collectibles (including degradation, fraud). But the biggest one (sadly!) being that something WoTC does completely trashes D&D and there is no 'Greater Fool' to believe/love our hobby like we do in 20 years time. note: I dont belive we are fools just using the epitet for effect!