JasonZavoda wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:In 2018 the average deaths per day were 7,300.

Grug Greyskin wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:
So right now over 2000 people a day are dying from COVID-19, it has become the leading cause of death in the US for about the past two weeks now. Even allowing for your argument that we are potentially over-counting, lets say there is a 25% increase in deaths due to this virus, that is even with the extraordinary measures that are being taken right now.  Over the course of a year that is over 600K people. This is not something to take lightly. It won't help the economy to open things up, but at the expense of hundreds of thousands of people.  The only way that can happen is with extensive testing being made available, so that hot spots can be quickly identified and isolated, and even then you will probably see masks being required in public places, etc.  The testing sounds like it is right around the corner, but that seems to have been the case for a while now, hopefully that isn't being held up by politics.

Bracton wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:I'm going to leave this discussion after this. I feel like I'm just repeating myself.



The number of COVID-19 deaths in the US has generally ranged between 1,500 (on the very low end) to 2,000 per day over the last two weeks.

Are those classifications judgment calls? Yes, just like all other causes of death listed in death certificates. If you don't believe the numbers for COVID-19, you don't believe any numbers at all. There is nothing that makes COVID-19 classifications any more suspect than any other classification (whether for the flu, pneumonia, heart disease, cancer or any other). As I've now said several times, the person filling out the death certificate makes a judgment, and must find that COVID-19 was an underlying cause of death for it to be included. Just like every other cause of death.



Yes, 600,000 deaths is now well beyond any number of likely deaths in the US from COVID-19, assuming current trends continue. Assuming current trends continue. Why do we have the current trends we do now? Shelter-at-home orders have now been in place in large parts of the country for just over a month. (Northern California was first, on March 17.  Illinois was March 21, just less than a month ago.)

Can you prove there wouldn't have been 600,000 deaths (or millions of deaths) if we hadn't put these extreme measures into place? Was the alternative to wait and see how many died before we decided action should be taken? How many deaths would you like to have seen before we did so?

"Sensationalism and fear-mongering"? Was Y2K sensationalism and fear-mongering? What about the changes in airport procedures after 9/11? The numbers were based on scientific epidemiological models. Were they almost certainly wrong? Absolutely. But they were the best we had given limited information, and we should make our decisions based on the best information we have, not hopes and slogans. There will be time to do a complete analysis on how dangerous this virus is, and figure out what the best approach should be the next time. But being cautious in the name of saving lives seems the right approach to me.



There's no practical way to just quarantine "those likely susceptible to dangerous and fatal consequences". With data as of April 14, 23.1% of deaths in New York were aged 45 to 64. 24.6% were aged 65 to 74. Many of those who died had underlying conditions, such as diabetes, lung disease, cancer, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease, liver disease, heart disease or immunodeficiencies. But not all. Do we quarantine all those over the age of 45 with any of those conditions? What of people who might have one of those (such as hypertension) and not even know it? If we limit the quarantine to all of these people, COVID-19 will likely run rampant through the rest of the population. The risk of it spreading to those we attempt to quarantine will be very high. And even with only the "young and healthy" remaining outside, many of those will die, perhaps enough to overwhelm the health care system. It would be an enormous, national experiment with human lives on the line.

Now, what we are doing now is also an experiment. But it is designed to minimize overall deaths, and once the curve is flattened, can be modified over time to get people and the economy working again. That's where we are at now; we just need enough testing kits to be able to make sure we track cases as the restrictions are lifted.



See above. The numbers are preliminary, but the CDC can look at trends and do statistical analyses to determine the likely impact. They could be wrong, but it's the best we have at the moment. We shouldn't ignore the best information we have just because it isn't perfect, or because we may have better information later. You go to battle with the information you have. And if you don't like judgement calls, then you can't quote any death numbers, because they are all judgment calls.



No, this isn't the black plague. We don't really know yet how bad it could have been. But that's not a reason to take no action and see how many people die.

It is not destroying the world economy. Yes, this is bad, and I'm not at all minimizing the extreme trauma the shutdown is creating for many, many people. This is exactly what government is for. It needs to cushion the blow so we can take the necessary actions to save lives.

And no, this isn't damaging civil rights. The police power of the state -- including the power to quarantine and impose restrictions for the benefit of the public health -- goes back to English law, and has been recognized by the Supreme Court since the time of Chief Justice Marshall. That doesn't mean that all restrictions imposed by states or local authorities are good policy, but for the most part it isn't a civil rights/constitutional law issue. (Now, if we try to impose mandatory tracking of those who are not shown to have the disease, that may be different. But in the US, we're not there yet.)

OK, I'm getting off my soapbox. Everyone, please be safe out there. Wash your hands. Stay home if you can.

Sea-to-sky-games wrote in Random Thoughts or OT Chit-Chat Thread:The media are the ones, after all, who told everyone it was just the flu. A small sampling:
Jan 28 - Business Insider - "The flu is a far bigger threat to most people in the US than the Wuhan coronavirus"...